Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Thanks for the reply, but if reinforcements are going cross country rather than along roads, moving from here to there might be a slow process.

[Torie]

Wagner gets thinned out, and regular but incompetent draftee Russian forces have to fill in the gaps, and upon their arrival, promptly flee, sensible chaps that they are.

"Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, who heads Ukraine’s ground forces, made the comments in a post on Telegram.

It comes as Ukrainian forces claim to have routed a brigade of thousands of troops in Bakhmut.

He said: “In some areas of the front, the enemy could not resist the onslaught of the Ukrainian defenders and retreated to a distance of up to two kilometers.

”It was the competent conduct of the defensive operation that exhausted the trained forces of the ‘Wagner’ PvC and forced them to be replaced in certain directions by less well-prepared units of the Russian regular troops, which were defeated and left.”

[Torie]

Well-written reminder by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee as to the importance of taking the long view in the war: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive

This goes for the commentators but also the policymakers. They believe a relative lack of long-term planning on the part of Ukraine's allies has created (potentially false) hope for Russian leadership re: a war of attrition and a decline in foreign support for UKraine.

Yep:

"It is critical that Ukraine’s Western partners develop a long-term theory of victory for Ukraine, since even in the best-case scenario, this upcoming offensive is unlikely to end the conflict. Indeed, what follows this operation could be another period of indeterminate fighting and attrition, but with reduced ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. This is already a long war, and it is likely to become protracted. History is an imperfect guide, but it suggests wars that endure for more than a year are likely to go on for at least several more and are exceedingly difficult to end. A Western theory of success must therefore prevent a situation in which the war drags on, but where Western countries are unable to provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage."

Yeah, particularly since I keep reading article after article stating the obvious, that any deal or cease fire or anything is impossible as long as Putin is in power. So either it is resolved by retaking conquered territory by force or Putin's exit.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1656541394759024646?s=12

Russia took another couple of blocks, but Ukraine cleared the access road to avoid having to retreat or be encircled.

It would be interesting to know how many troops are bogged down in Bakhmut on both sides. The more bad guys there are in the Bakhmut area, the fewer that are elsewhere.

[Torie]

At this point I don't believe much of anything, because so much of it is to silly bugger the enemy. We will attack later, not now, when we have WMD's,  hey we just got a bunch more awesome missiles and tanks, attack there, but is it real or a feint, it's Calais, Calais, any day now. It would be glorious that if and when the big push comes, we are all surprised as to when and where. My God, they are pouring on to the beaches of Crimea!

[Torie]

I don't see Klischiivka and Berkhivka having much to do about anything. The danger to Ukraine was the cutting off of the access road. With the Russians now having fled to behind the two water barriers, the access road appears to be safe. In fact, it is now more "protected" by the two bodies of water. So if Wagner etc want to throw more bodies for slaughter against the Ukraine defensive line, they can keep doing so. The idea I suspect is to get Russia to have as many forces as possible committed to the Bahkmut meat grinder. Best of all would be to have Putin himself go down there and lead the charge.

[Torie]

This behind a paywall article about a peace deal is not worth reading, but it did occur to me that the perceived odds that Trump will be POTUS again affect the bargaining position of the belligerents. That elephant in the room was not mentioned really, but the clearer it is that Trump is a Putin asset (I will shut the war down in 24 hours), the more it matters what his prospects are.

We live in beyond the looking glass world now. The crazy scenarios too far out there to allow suspension of disbelief in a novel are now reality.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-talks.html

[Torie]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

[Torie]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

Technically true but we have to consider base effects



What took place was that in early 2022 Russia got a massive surge in revenue relative to 2021 mostly due to a surge in world energy prices.  2023 is reverting to 2021 levels due to a clear decline in overall world economic fortunes

What were 2021 figures? Averaging all the way back to 2007 is not all that revealing as to the bite of the oil price cap.

Anyway, if you are right (at least to your implication), and the NYT wrong, that would be most disappointing.

[Torie]

I at least am patient. Hopefully the squeeze will get ever more Draconian, while the war gets ever more expensive for Russia. Squeeze them at both ends.

[Torie]

Wow. 3 billion is still real money.

[Torie]

Hilarious that people in this thread are actually claiming a mere -2% contraction in the Russian economy is game-changing.
Premature, much?

Perhaps the issue of Putin's ability to finance his war of conquest is more complex than one statistical estimate of questionable accuracy? For example, running the war is cheaper as one draws down on munitions, as opposed to having to purchase or fabricate more, or use more expensive stuff as the microchip squeeze takes a greater toll. Perhaps once Putin's financial reserves are exhausted, to keep the war going will require a more severe drop in the Russian standard of living, particularly among urban elites who Putin cossets because they pose a greater threat to him. Perhaps his war will become more costly as he loses control of the air. Biden finally seems to have received the memo that Ukraine getting air superiority over its skies is job one. Biden has the slows but at least he keeps moving in the right direction.* Once that happens, this particular layperson has the feeling that the calendar date of Putin's defeat and exit from the stage can be moved up substantially on the calendar. Perhaps.

A weather vane of the degree of Putin's desperation will be when he starts rattling his nukes again, which his pal Xi told Putin he found most discommoding. That raises another perhaps. Perhaps Xi will tire of the war, even if it reduces his fossil fuel bill a bit as a bottom feeding purchaser.

*Maybe Biden's gait is becoming more brisk now because he thinks it a good idea to secure Putin's defeat before Nov 2024, and airmail Putin's head to Mar-a-Lago as an early Trump Xmas present.

[Torie]

Russia’s Wagner group claims to have captured Bakhmut but Ukraine says it still controls a part of it

The chief of the Russian private military group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Saturday that his forces have taken complete control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after months of brutal fighting.

“The operation to capture Bakhmut lasted 224 days,” he said in a video posted to Telegram, seeking to claim a final victory in the city.

CNN could not independently verify Prigozhin’s claim, but an initial response from the Ukrainian side disputed it.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, in a Telegram post less than an hour after the Russian mercenary’s claim was published, admitted the situation in Bakhmut was “critical” but said Ukrainian troops were still “holding the defense” in a district on Bakhmut’s western-most edge.

“As of now, our defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector,” she said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/20/europe/bakhmut-capture-wagner-ukraine-russia-intl/index.html

How does Wagner group's claim, or more importantly Ukraine's admission the situation is critical, jive with all the well corroborated reports of Ukrainian advances in Russian retreats in the area over the past days?

Wagner may have taken the final few blocks in the grid of the compact city, but Ukraine shaved back both flanks, so instead of the line being a bulge into Bakhmut, it is now straighter. And now Ukraine says it intends to shave the flanks back further, and instead of Russia encircling and trapping Ukraine soldiers inside Bahkmut, the tables will be turned, and the trapped rats will be Russians.

That may be Ukraine silly buggering Russia to keep them busy in that vicinity, rather than move to the line holding Ukraine back from the Sea of Azov.

[Torie]

Nice lighting effects.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1660633126173831169?s=12
Look Russia can’t get everything it wants. It must accept the fact that retaking Belgorod will be impossible and must give it up to end the war

Don't be unreasonable. Russia should get Belograd back in exchange for Kalingrad, with the real estate of the latter sold off for vacation homes to assist in funding the reconstruction of Ukraine.

[Torie]

Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations..

So you're suggesting hostage taking then? Because that's what terrorists do.

"Man, why won't NATO let me use their stuff to conquer Russian cities and use their citizens as bargain?"

What do you think happens in war? You're acting like this is something else. Perhaps some game where Ukraine just gets bled out indefinitely by its much larger neighbor, who has no rules or decency? If Ukraine could up its chances of liberating their own people by occupying Russian border areas, and / or using those border areas to bypass hardened defensive lines in Ukraine, why shouldn't they?

Perhaps you would have a different opinion if a foreign enemy was slaughtering your people and showed no signs of leaving. Let's see how long your creative interpretations of war last then.

When it comes to Ukraine using Russian territory to better defend itself, the problem is not Woody, but Biden unfortunately.

[Torie]

Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations..

So you're suggesting hostage taking then? Because that's what terrorists do.

"Man, why won't NATO let me use their stuff to conquer Russian cities and use their citizens as bargain?"

What do you think happens in war? You're acting like this is something else. Perhaps some game where Ukraine just gets bled out indefinitely by its much larger neighbor, who has no rules or decency? If Ukraine could up its chances of liberating their own people by occupying Russian border areas, and / or using those border areas to bypass hardened defensive lines in Ukraine, why shouldn't they?

Perhaps you would have a different opinion if a foreign enemy was slaughtering your people and showed no signs of leaving. Let's see how long your creative interpretations of war last then.

When it comes to Ukraine using Russian territory to better defend itself, the problem is not Woody, but Biden unfortunately.

Honestly, is it a surprise that Biden is cautious where this is concerned? Though I do still wonder if the US were tipped off in advance about this latest development, and gave it the nod.

Maybe not surprising, but wrong headed. The red line about no US troops around, and no targeting of non military assets, would make sense, but if ordinance is coming into Ukraine from Russia, why not go after where it is coming from? I am  not giving Biden as pass on this one. He says no, until he says yes, and his incrementalism has cost a lot of Ukrainian lives.

[Torie]

Is it possible that Putin's pugilism channeling Ivan the Terrible's barbarism giving peace a chance elsewhere? Is it possible that Putin's insane irredentist fantasies nurtures sanity elsewhere?

https://insightnews.media/armenia-is-ready-to-relinquish-nagorno-karabakh-and-quit-from-russia-led-csto/

[Torie]

If there is a sound reason to expel Turkey it will be expelled, and what the US wants will be what happens. Turkey not really making much of a contribution is not a good reason to expel. The alliance historically has had a lot of members that do essentially nothing. As mentioned above, sharing military secrets with enemies might be a good reason, or perhaps arming enemies. So far as I know, Turkey is not giving aid to Putin.

[Torie]

If there is a sound reason to expel Turkey it will be expelled, and what the US wants will be what happens. Turkey not really making much of a contribution is not a good reason to expel. The alliance historically has had a lot of members that do essentially nothing. As mentioned above, sharing military secrets with enemies might be a good reason, or perhaps arming enemies. So far as I know, Turkey is not giving aid to Putin.

The issue with Turkey is that it's both the biggest headache and one of the biggest contributors, both in material terms and its geographic location, which controls the the only direct connection between Asia and Europe not under Russian Control and blocks Russia from accessing the Mediterranean. All in all, it's much better to have Turkey causing problems inside the alliance rather than outside of it, and the same applies for Turkey [Greece]: in addition to preventing openly hostile relations with the US, the UK, and to a lesser degree Germany and France, having Greece as a nominal ally rather than an open enemy is a little-discussed but important benefit.

I assume the above is what you meant, and it makes sense.

If Turkey ceases to have free elections (they are already not fair), and the Turkish government goes hard authoritarian, and effects atrocities on its ethnic and sexual minorities, then another decision point will be reached, but not now. I also read that the Turkish currency is close to a major collapse when Turkey runs out of reserve currency balances, and that might really undermine the government, with uncertain consequences to its governance. The election in that sense happened just in time for Erdogan. His propping up of the currency has to date drained Turkey of almost all of its hard currency reserves, and the dam is about to break.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1666167107099262976?s=20

I really do hope this story is not true. Otherwise Hitler has been reincarnated, and his genocide agenda implemented by the SS division of the Russian army. And thus they must all die, or rot in prison in The Hague. Too bad I don't believe in hell.

What a f'ing nightmare. Too bad it isn't and it won't go away when I wake up.

The thought of doing business with Putin, and giving him his pound of flesh, or a hefty portion of it,  just nauseates me.

[Torie]

This is an interesting, and sobering,  set of tweets about modern trench warfare. It is going to be a very hard and time consuming slog, particularly given, as we all knew, the lack of air superiority. When was the last time the US attacked anything without air superiority?

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184

[Torie]

Around Bakhmut, Ukraine has gained territory in recent days to take key high ground. Russian forces are hemorrhaging casualties trying to defend the city that sits in a sort of bowl. Russian troops have turned to former prison inmates, a tactic first used by Wagner, to dig trenches, according to a recently captured Russian soldier who was a former inmate.

Russian trenches have frequently proved better built than their Ukrainian counterparts, Ukrainian soldiers said. The March mission report said the bunkers were akin to “Vietnam-style spider holes” and “so deep as to be undetectable by drone.”

Such defensive positions will pose formidable challenges, said one American official, and it is too soon to judge whether Ukraine can overcome them. Russian defenses are arrayed in layers and, despite months of setbacks and casualties, have shown a resolve to keep fighting.

Russia’s air defenses remain punishing, as do its abilities to jam radios and down drones. As Ukrainian forces advance, troops will be more exposed to Russian air support.

“What will happen next — who the hell knows,” Mr. Zubariev said. “Paying with how many losses — they do not care.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/17/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-tactics.html

Unfortunately, drones are apparently not an antidote to a lack of air superiority in an offensive operation. Something I suspect needs to be done to change the equation.

[Torie]

Perhaps a leading indicator that things are not going that well for Russia on the battlefield right now, Putin is ramping up his nuke chat again. I have more nukes than anyone else! And they are mine, mine, all mine, no matter where they are! And my favorite map has Alaska as part of mother Russia.  Too bad Washington and Oregon has too many queers in it, or I'd take them too.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/17/europe/nato-danger-ukraine-war-putin-intl-hnk/index.html

[Torie]

Regarding the matter of effecting Ukraine air superiority, I have no competence on the matter. I have enough trouble coping with US law. Create a special foreign legion and send in mercenary pilots? Whatever it takes. The idea of pushing Ukraine to take territory ASAP where they will be slaughtered without doing what is necessary to avoid that so that the job can be done before The West decides its time to go back to normalcy (with some pandering populist America First Pub as POTUS God forbid as the ultimate nightmare), is a horrible prospect. Below is an article that popped up per a google on the matter.

Putin should feel fortunate that I am not POTUS. That much I know. As it is I think some European leaders and NATO chieftains are brooding about this and possible course corrections. I have no idea what Biden is being told.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-air-superiority-russia-fighter-jets-1802293