Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Torie, making me look up words.  "surcease", really?

My Dad was a superb writer, and my love affair with words has been with me from my very earliest memories. In due course, I on the off topic board will put up a letter he typed out to to his parents in Brooklyn as he sat in a hotel room. The place is Hollywood, the year is 1928, and the topic is his impressions of tinsel town. He does not mince words.

Anyway, blame my Dad for this aspect of my character. He was my role model. I adored the man.

[Torie]

Economic Ties Among Nations Spur Peace. Or Do They?


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/business/economy/ukraine-russia-global-economy.html

This article delves into the centuries long debate about whether and when economic interdependence fosters peace or vulnerability. It is a mixed and complicated “bag.”  The bit that I found most arresting in the article was this:

“In terms of the current crisis, Mr. Haass argued, in some ways the economic benefits were not mutual enough. “The Germans needed Russian gas much more than Russia needs exports, because they can make up for lost revenue with higher prices,” he said.

“That’s where Europe handled the relationship all wrong,” Mr. Haass added. “The leverage wasn’t reciprocal.”

Putin may well have underestimated the unity of the West when it came to sanctions and its willingness to endure the economic pain of imposing them, but in the end it does not matter much, because the Russian economy is just not that vulnerable to disruptions from its interdependence. It is easier said than done to stop buying Russian raw materials while in tandem forcing market prices down.

[Torie]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

That assumes that Putin needs the oligarchs more than the oligarchs need Putin.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

Thank you. So the ICC as a grand jury can conduct a hearing without the defendant and issue an arrest warrant I take it. I was actually pondering the issues in my head last night. Is that what happened to Miloslovic?

[Torie]

If I were a Russian living in Moscow and someone came up to interview on camera for the world to watch and hear, just why on earth would I say what I really think? I am surprised frankly that some were as candid as they were. One seemed to have a job that was dependent on some western company that is going away. I would not be surprised if Putin brought back the gulag unless he thinks it is more cost effective to just kill people. I wonder how many Russians would like to get out of Russia ASAP at this point if they could.

I also wonder what Russian immigrant opinion is like in the US on the invasion. I hear a lot of Russian spoken in Hoboken. If I hear the language spoken in the dog park that I go to, I plan to try to strike up a conversation. The security guard at the synagogue a block away (sad that the congregation feels it needs a full time security guard), speaks Russian, but my impression is that his English is very limited, so I would leave him alone and he is working anyway.

[Torie]

I assume the negotiations with Serbia will stall. It was a dumb idea to start with in my opinion.

[Torie]

"Ukrainians feel because of Russia's war against Ukraine is anger (62%)"

Who knew? Geez.

[Torie]

A squib appears about Ukraine and avenues to send humanitarian aid via a blog in Hudson, NY.
 
https://gossipsofrivertown.blogspot.com/2022/03/aid-and-support-for-ukraine.html

[Torie]

The parallels to 1940 are very eerie indeed.

Volodymyr Zelensky Leads the Defense of Ukraine with His Voice

At the most consequential hour in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a comedian has assumed the role of Winston Churchill.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/03/14/volodymyr-zelensky-leads-the-defense-of-ukraine-with-his-voice

[Torie]

1, This guy has a talent of being able to synthesize well with an economy of words as to the invasion "fallout."

https://prospect.org/blogs/tap/its-an-ill-war-that-blows-no-good/

2. Aside from cutting off Russia from the technology it needs for its military, sanctions need to truncate the tyrant's income stream effectively. Effectively means a fraction that has a relatively high numerator of the decline in income stream as compared to the denominator of economic damage to the West.  The rest is indeed larded with virtue signaling.

[Torie]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

The most interesting bit to overstate it, is that "nobody" but Putin knew he was actually going to really "just do it."

I question the world famine narrative in my ignorance. At least it seems overstated to me. Food production can be ramped up quickly in a way energy production cannot. Food prices are going to go up however. It is kind of the reverse of the corn laws, which propped up prices so wheat was growing on rather steep slopes that was inefficient but still profitable given the price supports. And land used to grow corn to feed cattle (a relatively inefficient way to produce calories), can be used to grow wheat or soybeans, etc.

I wonder if we really go full bore into a cold war, how much the standard of living of the planet will decline. We had it good as defense budgets declined as a share of GDP and free trade and high tech did the reverse, and improved living standards.

[Torie]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

At this point in time, I can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. As you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain against a seemingly unprepared target. For the Russians, this was as close to a cakewalk as you could get for an invasion. If they're having this much trouble, how the hell are they gonna fare out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

I think in the end Russia wins much of Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea Coast, which I would consider a win.

As to what you consider a "win:"

1. Do you assume in due course with Russia grabbing that part of Ukraine, that it is let back into the family of nations and trade resumes?

2. What do you assume under the "win" scenario" is the status is of the balance of Ukraine? NATO, EU, real defense treaties, nothing so that we can do this all over again, or what?

3. What under the "win" scenario will be the situation of those in Ukraine now under Russian rule. Are they pacific and resigned, guerilla warfare, expulsion, genocide, etc?

I have trouble myself conceiving of Russia by virtue of this invasion retaining a lot more Ukrainian real estate while at the same time being allowed to become economically enmeshed with the Western economies again, as opposed to being walled in with a cordon sanitaire. I just cannot. I don't think public opinion will allow that, and I think the West has taken to heart its mistakes when dealing with Putin, and with non NATO states on the front line for that matter. Maybe I am being naive and "pollyannish." I certainly hope not. I hope I am as right about that as my prediction that Putin wanted to go for the max, and annex Ukraine, and bear almost any burden to do it, till death do he part.

Al said it far more eloquently and eruditely above. I just don't think there is an outcome out there for Russia that can be considered a "win" for them, whether it retains any more real estate or not. Somewhat more likely is that everybody loses.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1500490557663158272?r
Putin is truly in danger if he's doing something like this, Most civil servants in Russia are delibraty underpaid with a tacit understanding that this allows them to engage in bribery so long as it's not too blatant as to generate public outrage. He's eroding away one of the key pillars to his power

Is this a revenue raising measure, like a wealth tax of 100%?

[Torie]

Thank you for your response. I hope your prognosis is wrong of course.

[Torie]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-suspends-operations-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-05/

"Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion"

It seems Visa and Mastercard cards issued with Russian banks and used inside Russia will continue to work.  What will not work is if you are a Russian with one of those cards issued by a Russian bank with a Visa or Mastercard card and try to use it internationally.  Likewise, if you are a foreigner that wants to use a Visa or Mastercard card issued outside of Russia in Russia, it will not work.  If so the impact of this one sounds large but is most likely limited.

One would think the Russian banks could issue their own cards for internal use in short order no? Not that there will be much money to draw upon that is sitting in Russian banks by Russians though. So I think it is a big deal if Russians are cut off from drawing upon funds sitting in foreign banks.

[Torie]

Why was Russia "forced" to sell its oil to Shell at a 30% discount? Maybe that is a start to getting to what the point is, which is to cut down Russia's hard currency revenue stream. That can be done by it selling less oil, and/or oil at a lower price. I think the lower price is the variable that is really in play. 30% is a significant haircut. 50% is better, etc.

I think it is intuitively rather obvious that the relatively small percentage of Russian oil that the US buys is not that important as a revenue stream for Russia, particularly if Russia can sell it elsewhere at not much more of a discount. But the optics are terrible. The US should not be buying anything from Russia right now. Sure it might cause a bit of economic pain in the US but not that much by itself - at all. And that bit of economic pain as compared to what Ukrainians are suffering is just not in the same universe. And thus the optics.

[Torie]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

[Torie]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/visa-suspends-operations-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-05/

"Visa, Mastercard suspend operations in Russia over Ukraine invasion"

It seems Visa and Mastercard cards issued with Russian banks and used inside Russia will continue to work.  What will not work is if you are a Russian with one of those cards issued by a Russian bank with a Visa or Mastercard card and try to use it internationally.  Likewise, if you are a foreigner that wants to use a Visa or Mastercard card issued outside of Russia in Russia, it will not work.  If so the impact of this one sounds large but is most likely limited.

One would think the Russian banks could issue their own cards for internal use in short order no? Not that there will be much money to draw upon that is sitting in Russian banks by Russians though. So I think it is a big deal if Russians are cut off from drawing upon funds sitting in foreign banks.

The way Visa and Mastercard works is that they actually do not extend credit.  It is the banks that issue the card that actually extend credit.  Visa and Mastercard only work as network processors.  My understanding is that Russian banks will now shift to using PRC's Unionpay which works a lot like Visa and Mastercard but on PRC as an alternative network processor.

But being in Russia with a card issued by a foreign bank will not work in Russia, so Russians in Russia with such cards won't be able to use them.

[Torie]

This article towards its end gets into the startling notion that if the US dollar cannot be used to buy Russian oil, Russia will not be able to be paid for its oil. Color me confused on exactly how that works.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/596962-efforts-to-decimate-russian-economy-threaten-to-boomerang

[Torie]

I honestly don't see how Ukraine survives as a nation for much longer if it can't accept Crimea and Donbass are lost.

How can one even have a clue about that until the structure of the deal offered is not one that could be reasonably construed as death by a thousand serial cuts?

If Putin offers a deal where in exchange for the Crimea and Donbass heist being recognized, Russia stipulates that what remains of Crimea may join NATO and have NATO military assets stationed there, what do you think might happen?

[Torie]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056?s=20&t=ddk73d9RCVf...

The plan is to capture the planes in good condition to beef up Russia's depleted air force,  you perspicacity challenged one you. Occam's Razor is your friend. 

[Torie]

And here I thought it was a disguised Molotov cocktail to trap the unwary.

[Torie]

At least I'm not the only person thinking this.

Yeah, that whole narrative did not hang together too well. Something is going on behind the curtain. I suspect when this story is written, quite a bit was going on behind the curtain.