CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Torie]

The Torie guess is 226 D to 209 R. The Pub max might be 223 D to 212 R.

One reason I avoided this orgy of predictions around here is my crystal ball revealed a quite flat bell curve, particularly when the vibe of a Hispanic (particularly male) Dem collapse in so many closely contested places stated agitating the air molecules. As Muon2 will tell you, Hispanics are law and order voters. I don't think those riots went unnoticed by them.

I think also some the Dem chat also pushed some higher SES centrist voters who are cross conflicted to split their tickets down ballot. The Pub survival rate was amazing. Two Pubs were redistricted out of their seats in NC, and the Pub in CA-25 who won in that special election is more likely than not to lose.  

The Torie man is old enough to tend to know what is an educated guess and what is a rather wild one.

In other news, I suspect Fox News called AZ prematurely because it did not know that late absentee or perhaps pre election in person voters (if AZ has those voters) in AZ were a much more Pub tranche than those who voted earlier. I did not know that either.

You will be hearing a lot less from Nancy Pelosi. The Pub minority leader McCarthy was boasting that Nancy may have lost effective control of the House more often than not, and he might be right. A fair number  of Dems in vulnerable seats going forward have not vested their pension benefits sufficiently yet, and will want to try to hang around to juice them up.

[Torie]

And why have NY-11, NY-22 and NY-24 not been called? The Pubs there have very fat margins.

[Torie]

For all the talk of the Dems doing awful in the House races, I don't really see it that way. It was really only the ones who were basically DOA (specifically Peterson), typically heavily Republican district representatives like Rose and Horn, and the South Florida ones who lost. Overall not bad.

The number os seats the Pubs won in seats Clinton won is quite substantial so no.

[Torie]

Miller Meeks lead now 22 votes. Johnson county showed up with a 14 vote margin from somewhere. The other change was a Pub precinct was missed.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1326041766173302789

[Torie]

I keep readings these posts that a Dem gerrymander in CA is baked into the cake, because Newsom appointed a bunch of hack county auditors who in turn picked a bunch of false flag Pubs and NOP's to be on the commission who are also really Dem hacks. For those of you who accept the challenge, if any, might you favor the old man with some evidence of all of this and links, or should I put all of these surmises and assertions in the same box as Trump's assertion that the election was stolen from him due to massive fraud? Thank you for your kind attention in advance.

[Torie]

I have the partisan breakdowns of the absentee ballots returned in NY by county as of 2 or 3 days ago (good enough), and based on the Cortland dump, if replicated elsewhere,  Brindisi closed the margin by around 22,000 votes, and is behind by 28,000. There are about 50,000 to 55,000 of those ballots in NY-22. So still about an 85% chance of going Pub maybe.

[Torie]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

222 D,  211 R, 1 lean/likely R (that 40 vote margin has been certified, so to change they need to find outright errors (IA-02)), 1 tossup (CA-25). Odds are maybe 60% that the final will be 223 D-212 R, and 40% it will be 222 D - 213 R.  The Dem's net loss is 10 - 11 seats. The Dems lost most of the close ones, and there were a lot of close ones. 

[Torie]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

Those “jump balls” should all go GOP.

Speaking of NY, you don't think the Dem candidate will win about 50% of the absentee ballots of registered Pubs and 100% of everything else? The total absentees might by as much as about 10% higher than the totals here, but that is about the max increase.

[Torie]

"Acting like every single Congressional Race left in New York State will go Democratic is very bad on your behalf!"

I revel in being a bad ass, and look forward as my health improves, to continuing my streak. Thanks for the compliment.

[Torie]

The math above corresponds with mine.

[Torie]

Kean will win

Kean will win

Now im more confused.  

Some make an effort to post something of value, and some do not. Who knew?

And unless you just made the numbers up, you are in the former category,  in the opinion of this old brain.

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

221-223 D absent more surprises.

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

221-223 D absent more surprises.

Do you have he link to that?

I just used a NYT sheet from a I don't know its date stamp and played with it, to reflect updates.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/178bMAMhdFbzDQYG-JoeC9JnjaelSbQZUBS5mvTrTf18/htmlview#gid=0

[Torie]

"Assuming the second NY-11 is actually NY-3, there is a portion of the district in Queens.

'I did not understand your question. Perhaps word it as an assertion on your part what you think might happen."

Yes indeed, NY-03 is blessed with a Queen component, but actually NY-11 = NY 02 (so many numbers, so little time to the old brain). The Queens are not going to vote en mass for a Pub who has lost absent a Queen revolt. Who knew?  

[Torie]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

I am more interested with your Alaska obsession, the one state other than ND that has not yet been graced by my presence. I can understand being obsessed with upstate NY. That place is where ghosts are most at home.

[Torie]

Looks like at least 52,157 ballots left, Kean down by 9,708, he needs to win the remaining ballots by 18.7% to win.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326894606064168966

Is this counting done precinct by precinct or are the ballots in a county being tabulated randomly?  I ask because in the Union County vote dump of 2,293 votes, Kean got 80%, while the vote split in the county gave Kean only 44% - a measly little 36% increase in his vote share from what came before. Essex apparently only has one precinct, so there the issue is moot, but in that precinct's vote dump of 396, Kean got 56%, as compared to his previous vote share of 33.5%. That precinct has another 500 votes to count supposedly.

Morris seems a tad more "normal," with Kean getting a mere 10% better than his previous vote share
(63% as compared to 53%), as opposed to wildly higher shares in Union and Essex.

It looks like Pub vote fraud to me! Ha! Moving right along, with these crazed numbers, how are people projecting anything that has something to do with "science" rather than astrology?

[Torie]

Landslide Kean. This assumes the percentage breaks of the late ballots continues for each county for what remains, and for Warren and Somerset with no ballot dumps, Kean gets an extra 10 points from what went before ala Morris, and that Warren with no data at all, ala Somerset has 11% of its vote left to count. In this black box trick, the turnout in NJ-07 is utterly massive - 444,000 votes. There must be a lot of dead Pubs voting. Stop the fraud!

[Torie]

58K votes left to count as an estimate, with the percentage breaks for each county replicating the earlier breaks for late votes, with estimates where data points are missing for Warren and Somerset, all as described above
.

[Torie]

58K votes left to count as an estimate, with the percentage breaks for each county replicating the earlier breaks for late votes, with estimates where data points are missing for Warren and Somerset, all as described above
.

Last 20k counted in Somerset: Kean+16.3
Last 5k counted in Warren: Kean+26.3
Last 1.2k counted in Warren: Kean+33.1

Based on what you posted:

[Torie]

You are welcome.

[Torie]

Trying to juice up the suspense? 3137 x 2 = 6274 drop in the Kean projected margin slashing it by about two thirds to 3033.

[Torie]

In NY-22, to win, the Dem needs 100% of the absentees that are not Pub/Con, and 30% of the Pub/Con ballots. The Broom drop gave 37% of the Pub/Con ballots to the Dem, but Madison was a belly flop, with only 10% of the Pub ballots. Obviously the difference between the two dumps is big. Still tilt Pub, but no more than that now.

[Torie]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

I am more interested with your Alaska obsession, the one state other than ND that has not yet been graced by my presence. I can understand being obsessed with upstate NY. That place is where ghosts are most at home.

I map what other people largely ignore - Alaska, Idaho, the Dakotas, Hawaii and, due to a lack of a public shapefile, New York. Alaska fits that description very well, and unlike New York, actually has good election results data available since Statehood on the web. Even if they don't break down anything but the election day results available.

Plus, unlike you, I've been to Alaska a number of times. It's a great state to visit, at least in the summer. Too cold in the winter. But you probably still like snow.

I treasure the seasons in the Hudson Valley, and enjoy them all. And this fall has been utterly glorious. I am grateful I was spared from a final exit to savor it one more time.

Keep up the good work!

[Torie]

Real Clear Politics' map has called NY-22 for the Pub.