New Virginia U.S House maps

[Torie]

SCOTUS will have oral argument on whether the new VA stands in late March.

[Torie]

US Supreme Court rejected Virginia Republican members' request to stay federal judges' congressional map

Awesome, big win for Southern black voting rights in a questionable time!  I read this as strong signal that Kennedy wants to uphold the packing violation and therefore the new map, like he did in the surprise Alabama case last spring.

Or it may mean, that SCOTUS thinks they can issue a ruling in time for the mid June deadline for printing ballots.

Kennedy may well find a packing problem, because there is, but the problem with the replacement map, is that it is not a least change map. One can unpack with just a few line jiggles, not mass map destruction. The lower court decided to try to go for a map that was more akin to a good government, non gerrymandered map, and that in my opinion does not comport with the law. Gerrymanders are still Constitutional.

[Torie]

Forbes won by 60% when Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008.  This will be a very difficult  for him to win this new district, but whether it is Safe D depends on whom they put up against him.

Rigell is retiring, so Forbes is likely to run in the 50% McCain VA-02 if this map sticks.  However, he's probably the worst person they could run in an R+3 suburban seat in a presidential year between carpetbagging and his loudly anti-gay history.  Democrats would face only token opposition in VA-04.

Also, judicial precedent that requires drawing SEVA with 2 black opportunity districts, similar to the requirement of 3 Hispanic districts in the Rio Grande Valley, would basically force a 3rd D-PVI district in NOVA after 2021.

There is no such judicial precedent. There is no way to draw a 50% BVAP CD in Virginia that is compact. There is a way to draw compact Hispanic districts in the Rio Grande Valley that are 50% HCVAP, so those are required under the VRA.

[Torie]

Is there really any reasonable justification for a 50% VAP requirement? It should really be the bare minimum required to elect candidates of their choice, and it's pretty clear it can be done with a lot less - At least, depending on the region and the rate at which other racial groups in that region vote Democratic.

The 50% rule triggers the needs for a CD that will elect a candidate of the minority's choice. The actual district drawn need not be at 50%, as long as it will be performing for the minority group. But if you don't hit the 50% threshold as to the potential for a "compact" 50% minority VAP CD, then there is no requirement to draw any minority performing district at all, even though one could be drawn. So it is two step process.