I'm not worried about this seat, unless the Dem candidate is terrible and the GOP one is awesome, it'll stay Democratic.
Every district below Dutchess/Ulster Counties in New York has a Democratic representative, except NY-13, which has every policeman, fireman & cranky Italian in NYC (not all Italians, just the conservative cranky ones), and Peter King's district, which will be up for grabs when he retires, which can't happen soon enough. That King didn't lose in '06 or '08 is a travesty.
Supposedly NY-1 has a GOP rep but I think that's a fluke from low turnout 2014 & Cuomo's underwhelming re-election. The far east end of the Island is extremely wealthy and socially liberal, Randy Altschuler Jr. will be swept out in the next Dem wave.
Ah, not many people live on the far east end of the Island. I do have this perception, that the Dem turnout oscillates more vis a vis Pub turnout between POTUS election year, and off year election cycles, than in most states, and Israel retiring now, was probably not an accident. Oh, and except for the seats that the Pubs now hold, and the Israel seat, every seat south of Dutchess, assuming that means you are excluding NY-18, which is mostly south of Dutchess and Ulster, but takes in a bit of Dutchess), is overwhelming Dem (or strong lean Dem in the case of NY-04).
