Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[Torie]

Will being pushed to the kiddie table push any of Fiorina, Kasich, or Paul to drop out of the race?  Paul was talking about "making an announcement about his candidacy" back when he looked likely to be demoted to the kiddie table at the last debate.

Paul should drop out soon. Kasich I suspect will go before NH, and maybe even Iowa. Fiorina leaves after NH, along with Bush. That all seems fairly obvious. What is not obvious is what Carson will do, and whom he will support. He seems to me by far the most important imponderable in the race. Otherwise, it's Rubio/Christie versus Trump/Cruz. Things are beginning to sort out now - finally. It's down to a Manichean race between the good force and the bad force, ala Star Wars or the Lord of the Rings. Will the Pubs embrace Saroun or Gandalf? It's becoming an epic!

[Torie]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

[Torie]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

I doubt we are going to see 5 polls in any state (or nationally) before the deadline. Fiorina may have passed Carson in NH but she has to get past Bush and Kasich too if she wants to get into 5th place, and that doesn't seem likely.

My bet is we see a couple of national polls and one state poll each for IA and NH before the deadline.

Oh, yeah, right. Caron in the NH line is in white too. She isn't going to be in, then most probably.