Lake county is where Kirk is from. and he won it 56% to 39% in 2010. I think he wins it like 51-47, while losing like 53-45 statewide.
I know that and all, but 2010 was a midterm and 2016 is a Presidential year. I'm sure he can keep it very close (maybe even 49-49), but I don't really see him winning it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the main Democratic crunch RE: midterms that minorities and young people don't turn out? That's not exactly the GOP's problem in Lake ... is it?
It's white non Hispanic population is about
the same as the state of Illinois as a whole, and more Hispanic than the state, about half as black, and somewhat more Asian. Given that it is the Hispanic turnout that oscillates the most between presidential and off year election cycles, yes the Pubs have to "worry" about this. Muon2 has noted to me that Hispanics in his home town tend to not turn out in non Presidential years in DuPage, and the same would be true in Lake.
Oh, and Lake Forest and adjacent parts of Libertyville (where Adlai Stevenson's farm was, and maybe still is owned by his heirs, if it has not yet been paved over with a subdivision) are basically at the end of the line of the stereotypical famed upper middle class to wealthy north shore suburbs of Chicago. The SES of Waukegan (heavily Hispanic now) is on another planet as compared to Lake Forest.
Here, one literally visually see where the wealth zone ends in Lake on its western and northern
ends. The shift is pretty dramatic.
Poll
