There's a terminal case of Trump denial syndrome around here.

[Torie]

The reason it's so open is all of the candidates have their weaknesses, so it's hard to know how things will play out. If Carson were more facile, and sensible, on the issues, and really projected he would be competent as POTUS, it might be reasonable to predict he would win the nomination for example. But alas, well, whatever. So we need to be patient and see who mitigates their problems best.  For Jeb, there is no evidence so far he has the slightest ability to do that at all, so thus his chances are fading. But maybe he will have an epiphany.