Which is the more likely as the next UK government?

[Torie]

It seems based on all the polls and so forth, that it's very close as to whether or not the Tories, LD's and PUD's can reach the magic 323 number, or reach it with the UKIP (thus some sort of minority government). But it seems that they are about 10 seats short. The numbers don't seem there for a Labor led coalition to get to 323 without the SNP, and the SNP will not be part of a government. So the alternative, perhaps the most likely one if the polls and seat projections are right, is for a Labor minority government, with the SNP allowing such a government to hold on for a period of time. But polls and so forth can be off a bit. What do you think is the most likely scenario? Option 3 is for those who think I'm clueless.

[Torie]

I voted Labour minority in your poll, but a perhaps more likely scenario is a Lab-LD minority coalition. They will still need SNP votes to survive, but at least a Lab-LD coalition will command more seats than the Tories, thus giving them more credibility, and they will also win votes when the SNP abstain (which they will do on any England-only measure.) It will therefore be in Labour's interests to seek this coalition, if the election result goes as predicted.

Ive wondered about this too. forgive my ignorance, but why wouldn't the LDs be inclined to join an anti-Tory coalition? i realize they're not necessarily friends of Labor, and their top priority would be which party offers them offers them more influence/power in a government plus the chance to kill FPTP, but why does everyone seem to think an alliance with the Tories is the more likely outcome?

Because it is more likely a Tory led coalition would get to 323 votes. If Labour cannot get to that number with the LD's, and the whole thing could come down at a time of the SNP's choosing, it seems to me the the LD's would be better off in the opposition if no coalition can get to 323.  What really can Labour plus the SNP give the LD's on policy matters that they would not otherwise get being in the opposition?

[Torie]

Despite Clegg's chatter to the contrary, one thing I cannot image the LD's doing is delivering its votes for an EU referendum in exchange for less social spending cuts. Since the Tories won't have the votes to do either anyway, why should the LD's agree to do that? So it may be a more informal arrangement that is made between the LD's and the Tories, which might suit Cameron just fine, since I doubt he really wants an EU referendum, which portends nothing but trouble for him and the British economy.

[Torie]

Doubly hung, much as SMilo suggests above.

Leads to both sides having a go at a Queens Speech. Even if one manages it, the government is not able to function for more than a few months and we go back to the country. Possibility of some non party leader being named as caretaker PM with Sir Jeremy Haywood (Cabinet Secretary) keeping the country ticking over.

How is this possible? The remaining 6 seats are held by the UKIP (Sein Fein being out of it, so the magic number being 323)? Milo btw does not have the Welsh party in his formula I see, with their 3 votes or whatever. Their leader has said they were open to working with Labour.