Sean Trende; Senate Races: What September Polling Trends Tell Us (user search)
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  Sean Trende; Senate Races: What September Polling Trends Tell Us (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sean Trende; Senate Races: What September Polling Trends Tell Us  (Read 580 times)
Torie
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E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: September 25, 2014, 01:20:54 PM »
« edited: September 25, 2014, 01:35:58 PM by Torie »

Sean Trende theorizes that in the close Senate races the Dem candidates might be hemmed in by Obama's low approval ratings, and find at the end of the day that it will be very hard to get folks to vote for them who don't approve of Obama's act. One interesting bit is the hypothesis that the Dem uptick in NC recently had more to do with Hagen being the only Dem candidate in the tight races whose poll numbers were running behind the Dem "fundamentals" rating which has to do with Obama's popularity in a state - so she, and she alone, of the Dem candidates had room for her numbers to go up, which they did.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,103
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 06:15:22 PM »

Be that as it may, it's tied to Obama's popularity is the theory. If Obama had higher favorables, then the undecideds if the Dem were in lower territory, would be predicted to break the Dem's way. So who the undecided's break to, is situational, as opposed to a theory that they tend to break against the incumbent.
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