OH-14: LaTourette won't seek re-election

[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

Actually, no matter how you drew the LaTourette seat, it was always about 3.8% to 4.1% GOP PVI. If you don't do the cut to Akron as far west as it was done, you can pick up some territory on the CD's southern boundary from the Youngstown CD, or dig a bit more into the Akron burbs. The link actually used was a surprise, because the mappers wanting to avoid cutting townships and cities (except for the cut along the lake for OH-09 in Lorain County), was a surprise. Thus the link was fatter than expected. 

[Torie]

LaTourette must have got really mad. Still the CD has a plus 4% GOP PVI. I doubt it will flip this year assuming the Pubs put up someone competent.

I suppose that seemingly ridiculous path of Republican municipalities the GOP used to connect Cleveland and Akron in the VRA black district is looking better than ever considering going further west allowed OH-14 to scoop up some deep red suburbs in the Cuyahoga Valley. It seemed dumb at the time but might have actually saved the seat.

Actually, no matter how you drew the LaTourette seat, it was always about 3.8% to 4.1% GOP PVI. If you don't do the cut to Akron as far west as it was done, you can pick up some territory on the CD's southern boundary from the Youngstown CD, or dig a bit more into the Akron burbs. The link actually used was a surprise, because the mappers wanting to avoid cutting townships and cities (except for the cut along the lake for OH-09 in Lorain County), was a surprise. Thus the link was fatter than expected.  

You could have drawn OH-11 down from Bedford to Akron via Walton Hills, Sagamore Hills Twp, and Boston Mills Twp without splitting municipalities at a fraction of the population from the route they drew. But in doing so, OH-14 would be ~R+3. By taking the western route they added a handful of very Republican Cuyahoga County suburbs instead of more marginal rural parts of Portage and Trumbull Counties. With a more easterly bridge, it becomes much more difficult to make OH-14 a McCain district (it can still be done but requires a hook-shaped cut into Portage County that really drives up the erosity of OH-13 and even then is barely a McCain district).

This little gem has a 3.7% GOP PVI.    Give me more time, and I probably can squeeze out another 15 Pub basis points. If I am allowed more cuts, I can get it up to 4.0% without much sweat.