MD-Rasmussen: Romney ahead by a Illinois-like margin

[Torie]

That's much bigger than the Illinois margin was.

When you adjust for the Sean Trende demographics, it is about 4 points ahead of the model, which was exactly how Romney ran in Illinois - about 4 points ahead of the model, which I hypothesized was due to the Gingrich collapse. But in LA, Mittens ran about 5 points below the model, maybe due to the Cajun = white Catholics thing, or simply a flaw in the model, or Mittens had a generic down-tick in the aftermath of etch a sketch. I don't have a clue.

[Torie]

Perhaps the only suspense in MD, is whether Santorum can secure 3 delegates by carrying the Eastern Shore CD.

As to Wisconsin, due to the way the CD's are drawn (the new CD's are not much different than the old ones for purposes of this exercise, with most of the action being exchanging territory between the two CD's Huckabee barely carried), it looks like Santorum if Mittens carries the state, will be leashed to carrying but two CD's, getting six delegates. So it looks like Santorum's take next Tuesday will be either 6 or 9 delegates, with Mittens getting everything else, including the DC delegates of course.

[Torie]

Neat, good find Torie! Always good to raid delegates.

Raid?  Is that a synonym for "win" here? 

[Torie]

Well I saw the Maryland comments and not the Wisconsin comments. Bah.

Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.

[Torie]

I would expect the majority of Republicans in MD-06 to still be in Western Maryland. Montgomery County is obviously going to go for Romney, but there are only 120,000 registered Republicans in the entire county.

About half the population of the old MD-06 has been moved into Montgomery County, which McCain carried over Huckabee by a 41 point margin. I don't think so, even if Montco is lighter on Pubs.  It may be more Santorum than the state as a whole, but not by nearly enough. Also presumably the most pro Huckabee parts of Frederick were also removed from MD-06.  I suspect it will be close to the state average actually.
 

[Torie]

Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.

So, Santorum has no certain CD's from Maryland?

If Mitten carries MD by say 15 or more points, Santorum is certain to lose them all. Probably a 10 point margin is enough to take them all out of play, but of that I am less certain.