Illinois Primary Results

[Torie]

If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How can we call Ill-17, with no votes from Rock Island County?  You have 3 delegates for Rick. Are they leading by big margins?  Oh, Rick is leading in Rock Island County by 6% now, so yes, per the popular vote, he won 3 CD's where he has delegates, and I tend to doubt he won IL-13 anyway, where he didn't.

[Torie]

OK Phil. Hope you are having fun. Have a beer.

[Torie]

If I narrow it to the two competitive CDs there is a base of Romney 37 and Santorum 10

CD 16 (Rockford): Romney 2, Santorum 1, but could be 1-2 split (127 votes).
The State Treasurer locks in 1 for Romney.

CD 18 (Quincy): Romney 3, Santorum 1, but could be 2-2 split (111 votes)
Romney is really helped in 18 by having 2 popular State Reps on the slate.

So it looks like Romney has 40 Santorum has 12 and two are in play.

How are you getting the results by CD?

I think Muon2 is looking at the raw votes for actual delegates, which none of the rest of us are. He knows the players.

[Torie]

Though the media is heralding this as a great night for Romney (which, frankly, it is), I think it's still worth pointing out that Santorum did over perform the polling by a few points. Seems to always happen.

Per the Sean Trende regression analysis, Mittens over-performed by about 4 percentage points, which I suspect reflects Mittens got his share of the remaining Newt voters, as Newt slid from the altitude at which he was flying, at about 15% for an Illinois kind of place, down to 8%.

The more this race changes, the more it stays the same - state after state. And for that matter, from election to election - from the Kirk primary to this primary. The candidates may change, but attitudes change - more slowly.

[Torie]

It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.

My perception is that Catholics tend to vote like Mainline Protestants these days - and think like them.

[Torie]

It's mad. Catholics in Ireland (particularly up north) are far more likely to vote for a catholic than a protestant, and vice-versa. But in America identity politics seems non-existant among catholics.

It is a very heterogeneous demographic in the United States and I really think even speaking of the Catholic vote has lost all meaning now. It existed decades ago and was certainly a force during the Kennedy era and as late as Reagan.

My perception is that Catholics tend to vote like Mainline Protestants these days - and think like them.

In some places- I think it depends on ancestry of origin, how long they have been in the country, where in the country they live, what they do for a living and of course how often they  go to church. A Mexican-American in South Texas and some blue collar union member from South Boston may vote for the Democrats while an Italian American executive in North Jersey and Cuban American may go for the Republicans, yet I really don't think them being co-religionists has anything to do with how they vote.  The erosion of a Catholic vote has followed a similar pattern to the massive erosion of the RCC's influence and cohesion. 

I should have said white Mainline Protestants, and white Catholics. That is what I meant.