NC-PPP: Romney ahead, but Santorum winning if Gingrich drops out (user search)
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  NC-PPP: Romney ahead, but Santorum winning if Gingrich drops out (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Romney ahead, but Santorum winning if Gingrich drops out  (Read 1704 times)
Torie
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« on: March 14, 2012, 06:47:41 PM »

And, Romney's vote share goes up with a Gingrich exit.  Whether Gingrich is a spoiler or is helping block Romney, depends on how a state's system for awarding delegates. Though in terms of headlines and momentum, he hurts Santroum.

Indeed. In states where either each CD's delegates, and/or the at large delegates are winner take all, having Newt around helps.  Where it is all proportional per CD and at large (although if the CD's are a 2-1-0 deal, Mittens might get 2 or 0 rather than 1 by coming in first or third in a 3 person race, where he would have come second in a two person race, he mostly hurts the Mittens cause of getting a majority, unless an otherwise proportional state has a 50% threshold (either for at large delegates or per CD or both), which if met, zero's out the other guy. So for 50% threshold states in most of such states, Mittens would probably want Newt around as an insurance policy that he won't get zeroed out in an otherwise proportional state if Rick hits the 50% threshold. How many 50% states are left, I am not sure. Fun stuff!
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