The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched... (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 04, 2024, 03:32:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched... (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched...  (Read 6894 times)
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,102
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: March 14, 2012, 09:29:52 PM »

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to about ten congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the Democratically-drawn lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

I'm pretty sure the new districts will be used, won't they? And they aren't drawn by the Democrats and aren't a bipartisan gerrymander like the current districts. I don't know whether the new lines are more beneficial to Santorum or not. I suspect they are, just slightly. Two districts I can think of that will be more beneficial for him are the Riverside area district that does not go into wealthy areas of OC anymore and the San Joaquin county district that does not pick up wealthy Bay Area suburbs.

Yes, income was a factor in redistricting. But income as I have been saying, is not enough. It needs to be combined with Evangelicalism. In fact, for Nate Silver, income is not a factor at all, it is all about religion and region, but I suspect he can get away with it because income and Evangelicalism are correlated. But less so in CA in the sense that the Evangelicalism numbers are low.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,102
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2012, 09:32:32 PM »

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.


Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

But how does party registration work in California?  Can you just show up at the polls and say "I'm a Republican", or do you have to fill out a registration card weeks/months in advance?


You need to register as a Pub 30 days in advance I think.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.