Handicapping Kansas

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

Ya, I pulled that one out of my ass. I thought, well it is a caucus, so how can Paul go much below 10% even in Kansas, and then I thought about the story that Newt had "abandoned" the state, and maybe caucus types tend to be political junkies, and saw the horrible poll news for Newt coming out of Miss and Alabama, and I thought, well if I have to choose between the two, I'm going to go for keeping Paul close to 10%, and screw Newt - at least in KS ... he's dead.

Have I changed your mind? 

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

Yes, it would be better if one could have percentages that add up to 110% rather than 100% I admit. Something had to give, and I went with the two front runners dominating. Anyway, I would be amazed if Mittens fell below 30%, and I doubt it will be that low. But who knows. I am flying on instinct.