Would you accept this AZ map as a compromise, or urge your team fight on?

[Torie]

OK,  given the lay of the land, where we probably will have a new 5th commissioner, and who knows what that person will do, and whether that person is too much of a Mathis redux, will also be impeached, and on and on, with maybe a court finally drawing a map, if  the map below were suggested, and you were one of the partisan commissioners, would you agree to it, or think that your team could do better continuing to fight on pursuing  other remedies, bearing in mind that you might get a worse deal?

I tried as honestly as I could to follow the law, given what I now know, and then having done that, did make an attempt to make some of the CD's as "competitive" as reasonably practicable, without traducing jurisdictional lines, and so forth, without a good reason to do so for other than partisan reasons. But where there was some running room, I tried to tilt the CD's to the Dems a bit. I did what I think I would do as a judge. What do you think? I used the Torie partisan baseline, but bear in mind, that the sbane partisan baseline, would push up the GOP PVI by one point. I prefer mine, but it is subjective, and sbane's is hardly ludicrous, and reasonable minds can differ.

Sorry to create  a new thread on this, but that is the only way to be able to generate a poll.



 

[Torie]

The swing districts need to be made about 4 points Mccain for me to agree to it. Those are lean Republican districts. Like R+2. Especially that Tucson district. Get rid of that northeast county, add more of Tucson. And the 5th can pick up a bit more of inner city Phoenix, and less northern exurbs.

As to AZ-05, those "northern exurbs" are about 2 precincts. I followed the roads, and there is not much to cut into Phoenix that is not uber Hispanic, and the core of AZ-07.  I also lapped up about all of the heavily Hispanic precincts to the west of former AX-07, so that it was not unduly diluted. Going for more, means diluting it with Anglo Pubbies. That will not be attractive to a court, particularly if it splits municipal lines.  Adding more of Tucson to AZ-01 (which means grabbing Hispanic precincts), means AZ-02 will have to march into the Phoenix metro area. Good luck with that, all for about 50 basis points.

It is not clear to me at all that a court will be as accommodating as this map, to a close to even CD in Phoenix(AZ-05), and yet another that by deliberate design (I played with Glendale) is within reach given the right circumstances (AZ-09), and giving the Dems much more in AZ-01 given the VRA. I was also quite kind to AZ-04. A court might make it more Pubbie. Bear in mind that the courts in AZ tend to be pro GOP.

[Torie]

The issue sbane, is not what you want, but whether you think it worth the risk to reject this plan, and hope a court or something gives you something better, rather than something worse.

[Torie]

Who has drawn up this plan? The map should be drawn by the commission, end of discussion. It shouldn't be drawn by the courts. That's a bunch of crap, and is worse than anything the commission did. And you know it. And if the Republicans just keep impeaching people till they get exactly what they want, then F them! Seriously these people need to grow the F up. What a bunch of complaining children. Impeaching someone once is fine, but if they just keep doing it....ugh. Will you denounce it?

Impeaching someone has to be something done as a last resort. Clinton's impeachment comes to mind now...seems to be a pattern with Republicans? Anyways, the last map was crap and hopefully things are sensibly resolved. This map isn't too far from what I would draw except for Tuscon of course. Phoenix looks fine more or less.

Again we don't know what will happen, but if Republicans just start impeaching people unless they get what they want, what is the point of a commission in the first place? This needs to be taken out of the hands of the politicians. It just has to be. Even this whole Mathis mess is of their own making. Politicians recommend the independent who is on the commission right? Obviously a Phoenix Dem had a deal with her.....

Do you think you will end up with a better deal by rejecting this plan or not, that is the unanswered question.  We can argue about who F'ed whom when, and will, and no doubt it would be fun, but that is an entirely separate issue.

I do see your point about converting AZ-05 into an L shaped CD, which might move it a bit, but I highly doubt a court would do that, not  with N-S elongated Scottsdale next door in particular. So rejecting this plan to get that, rather than well, I could show you another "reasonable" cut that you would like less, is your choice, not mine. And you won't get "a within reach" AZ-09 either more likely than not. Cheers.

[Torie]

Here's the Tucson cut by the way: clean as a whistle. Good luck playing with it, and keeping it pretty, and meeting the VRA.

[Torie]

Torie's AZ-2 is a Dem pack that happens to be 50.1% Hispanic. It's not a Hispanic pack in any way. It also splits a reservation, of course.
The Phoenix seat is similarly drawn - going after Dem precincts, not Hispanic precincts, Retroceding out of "protected" Hispanic areas as a result. (The added advantage is, of course, that White Liberal precincts have higher turnout, so the net vote gain for Republicans for the remainder is greater.)

The Phoenix CD is 57.5% Hispanic, and does go after Hispanic voters, while staying within municipal lines. Oh dear, one precinct in Avon is Native American and does need to be in AZ-03 even though it does not make the map as pretty. It has almost no people.  I assume that irrelevant split from a population and partisan standpoint is what you are referring to.

[Torie]

The 7th here is 54.5% VAP, and it doesn't go into Phoenix or Glendale. It does take in the suburbs on the west side of Phoenix, but it has to for it to be a real Hispanic district. It also goes in and takes in the Hispanic areas of Pinal county and gets rid of the non Hispanic areas around Yuma. I didn't even catch how low the Hispanic % was in your 2nd Hispanic district. That map is certainly unacceptable.

And your Tucson cut is pretty hilarious as well. It includes some precincts that are like 70% white, but had another characteristic that would make them "appropriate" to put in the mustachioed man's district as you saw it.

You think a court will grab Hispanics west of Phoenix to put in the Tucson CD, so that it can pick up more white liberals in Tucson. I deliberately did not do that (and you have to do that to get the Dem percentage up in AZ-01), because I don't think a court will do that, nor an unbiased commissioner. So if that is your demand, we litigate. No deal!    Krazen's marginal CD looks good, and it does avoid splitting Glendale, and is certainly an option. Something has to be split however.

Below is a slightly revised map of Tucson, which drops the GOP percentage in AZ-01 by 20 basis points down to 52.7% McCain. I discovered Flowering Wells, which is close to 30% Hispanic, and marginal, and put it in AZ-02, which allowed adding 3 liberal white precincts to AZ-01 (the ones right on top of the University of Arizona of course).  The only liberal precincts still in AZ-02 which are under 25% Hispanic are in red and yellow, which the yellow being between 20%-25% Hispanic, and the red ones being between 15%-20% Hispanic. There are no other more Hispanic precincts  to put into AZ-02 which are within reach, so that AZ-01 can suck up more of the red precincts. None - at least none that I could find.

So the VRA creates a wall against the Dems getting what they want in Tucson, unless you cause AZ-02 to go into the Hispanic suburbs west of Phoenix. No deal! The Pubs should litigate against that tooth and nail in my opinion. I don't think it comports with the AZ law, cutting back AZ-02's footprint in Tucson and creating a Phoenix area salient for purely partisan reasons. There is nothing compact or community of interest related about that. It makes AZ-02 more like a wandering gypsy. I suspect the Pubbie friendly AZ Supremes will be listening to this line of reasoning very closely on this one.

[Torie]

Here's the Tucson cut by the way: clean as a whistle. Good luck playing with it, and keeping it pretty, and meeting the VRA.

What are the Hispanic standards for the VRA in AZ. Your CD 2 is at 50.1% if I'm reading it correctly, which would come under fire in many jurisdictions as too dilute. Just dropping La Paz from the existing CD 7 puts it above that. With some manipulation of the current CD-7/4 boundary and moving CD 4 into west Mesa, I can get two districts with HVAPs of 58-59%. Wouldn't a court find that a better fit for the VRA?

The VRA does not require more than 50.1%, and after the VRA is met, the balance of the law is driven by other criteria. There is no retrogression. To get AZ-02 to a higher Hispanic percentage requires it going into the Phoenix metro area.  I don't think that comports with the law's parameters very well, and I doubt a court would do that. I did the best I could to get the Hispanic percentage maximized in AZ-02 while avoiding Phoenix (or creating erosity in Tucson for the sole purpose of getting the Dem percentage up, which I don't think a court will do or should do).  To get AZ-02 a lot more Dem, requires dumping quite heavily Hispanic precincts in Tucson into it with AZ-02 making up the lost Hispanics in Phoenix. If the Dems demand that, as a Pubbie I would litigate.

Well anyway, I did round up a few Dem votes here. Not bad! I do think there is a real risk the Dems will get a worse deal if they reject this one. Yes I do. We shall see what happens. It should be interesting. 

[Torie]

Yes, and thus the AZ-02 CD goes to Yuma to comport with the VRA. It does not need to go to Phoenix as well as a wandering gypsy just to get its Dem percentage up. I know it sucks sbane. I feel your pain.  Get the AZ law rewritten.

[Torie]

You make no sense. First of all the Tuscon district is not the 7th, its the 8th (as in my map). Now that we have decided on that, can you draw me a district that is about 60% Hispanic, and 54% VAP Hispanic without picking up those areas west of Phoenix? If you can't, I don't see how you even follow the VRA. Pretty sure that is pretty up there on the criteria. You drew a GOP map, just admit it. You will feel better.

An unbiased commissioner will do exactly what I have said. Unless you have a weird definition of the word "unbiased". Typical lawyers.

The VRA does not require a more than 50% Hispanic CD for AZ-02, and once it is met, other legal criteria under the AZ law take over, with compactness and communities of interest being paramount. You cannot traduce those criteria either to up the Hispanic percentage, nor to up the Dem percentage - unless of course you are a lawless Dem hack.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If 50% plus one within a compact area is a necessary condition to make a claim under the VRA, and such a CD already exists, then the claim fails it seems to me, absent retrogression. Sure, if one within a compact area can draw a CD with a higher percentage, and that is deemed necessary to elect an Hispanic, and there is no retrogression, that may well be a grey area, although Justice Kennedy seemed to embrace the 50% safe harbor in his opinion in the Bonilla CD case in Texas as I recall. But that is a moot point here, since within a compact area, AZ-02 cannot be made more Hispanic. 50.6% is it, per my revised map. There is nothing left.

[Torie]

Yes, and thus the AZ-02 CD goes to Yuma to comport with the VRA. It does not need to go to Phoenix as well as a wandering gypsy just to get its Dem percentage up. I know it sucks sbane. I feel your pain.  Get the AZ law rewritten.

It doesn't go to Phoenix to get it's Dem percentage up lol. It does that by taking in white liberals in Tuscon! Completely unacceptable, and it shouldn't be drawn by a commission. Tuscon should get it's own district.

AZ-02 goes to Phoenix to grab Hispanics, so that it can afford to hand over to AZ-01 in Tucson some liberal precincts with significant Hispanic minorities, without dropping below 50% Hispanic VAP. So yes, in effect it does go to Phoenix for purely Dem partisan reasons, thereby violating the AZ law in my opinion.

No, my AZ-02 does not go into the Phoenix metro area. It just wings it, and does the minimum necessary to meet the VRA, thereby minimizing its wandering around trashing the AZ law's paramount parameters after the VRA is met. Heck, absent the VRA, AZ-02 would not be going to either Yuma or the dusty sand towns south of the Phoenix metro area. In my view, the AZ law mandates that one do only the minimum necessary to meet the VRA in order to otherwise preserve its other loadstars. And no, I don't view this map as one drawn by a Pubbie to max the Pubs agenda. I view it as a map a non partisan court would draw. I know you disagree. Fine. That is why we litigate!  

[Torie]

OK, here is the map that puts all the white liberals in AZ-01.  It is more erose for partisan reasons.  I am not sure a court would go there, but maybe, and given the McCain number, perhaps it is not a deal killer to avoid litigation.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If 50% plus one within a compact area is a necessary condition to make a claim under the VRA, and such a CD already exists, then the claim fails it seems to me, absent retrogression. Sure, if one within a compact area can draw a CD with a higher percentage, and that is deemed necessary to elect an Hispanic, and there is no retrogression, that may well be a grey area, although Justice Kennedy seemed to embrace the 50% safe harbor in his opinion in the Bonilla CD case in Texas as I recall. But that is a moot point here, since within a compact area, AZ-02 cannot be made more Hispanic. 50.6% is it, per my revised map. There is nothing left.

I would not assume that only one CD is required to be able to elect Latinos as candidates of choice. Latinos make up 25% of the VAP which is greater than 2/9. The onus would likely be on the state to show that if there were not two districts where a Latino could not be elected as a candidate of choice, it is because there was either no way to do it or there was a compelling state interest in not doing it.

Noncompactness for a VRA district is permitted if that is the only way to achieve it. That was the principle, accepted by the courts, that has guided the construction of IL-4 for the last two decades.

Did SCOTUS ever embrace that formula, where you look at statewide percentages, and to meet them, communities of interest and compactness and so forth go out the window even after the 50% threshold is met? Is it clear that 50.6% is not enough for AZ-02 even though it now elects an Hispanic with a lower Hispanic percentage?

[Torie]

I guess I had better read De Grandy. It is your understanding muon2 that De Grandy throws communities of interest and compactness out the window, or is it a mush and unclear?  As to the surname bit, the incumbent down there was the choice of Hispanics. So Lulac is met it seems to me. Am I missing something?

[Torie]

And your Tucson cut is pretty hilarious as well. It includes some precincts that are like 70% white, but had another characteristic that would make them "appropriate" to put in the mustachioed man's district as you saw it.

The really fun part is that mustachio man lvery much wants at least some of them in there.

Quite. Now that you mention it, in my little Dem gerry above to give AZ-01 all of those white liberals, AZ-02 ends up like , when it currently is like .  The mustachio man in his new CD would have been hung on with about a 1% margin in 2010

 .  

[Torie]

The purpose of this map is what Lewis?  Just asking. 

[Torie]

I wouldn't accept it. See you in court Lewis.

[Torie]

I wouldn't accept it. See you in court Lewis.

Would you accept what Krazen drew, or would you see him in court too?

Maybe as a political deal, yes, but it certainly isn't anything like a court would draw. His basically gets creates a CD in Phoenix that is one point more Dem than mine, and gets close to ceding a CD to the Dems in Tucson of course, in exchange for everything else being put totally out of range. There is no way the Dems would get as favorable a Tucson seat as his map has, but his CD in Phoenix could well be drawn by a court, and he does take the northern CD off the table for the Dems. His coming up with that Phoenix CD for the Dems which does not divide any municipalities is kind of a boon for the Dems, because it makes the drawing of such a CD more likely than if that option was not there. It makes me a tad more flexible than before in other words. You porked the pooch krazen!  

[Torie]

I wouldn't accept it. See you in court Lewis.

You think there would have been an impeachment if Republicans didn't suspect they'll be laughed out of court? I don't.
It's why Brewer "had to act" (actual quote!) before the map was finalized.

No, I an assuming that the court draws the map, because the commission never draws one in time. Anyway, that is the default option, pending finding out what the new commissioner will do. That is why my little exercise is relevant, and for no other reason.

[Torie]

Let me add a potential table for all to accept or reject. I'll use the Torie PVI which I understand is the McCain fraction of the two party vote minus 52.3%. The districts are ordered from most D to most R. Help me out by explaining the reason for rejection.

A: -16.4%, HVAP 58.1%
B: -11.1%, HVAP 59.1%
C: -2.2%
D: +2.2%
E: +3.2%
F: +4.7%
G: +5.9%
H: +7.0%
I: +9.4%

I like it from a partisan standpoint. Which map is this? Is it supposed to be a compromise map to which the commission would agree, or an anticipated court drawn map, or both?

[Torie]

Let me add a potential table for all to accept or reject. I'll use the Torie PVI which I understand is the McCain fraction of the two party vote minus 52.3%. The districts are ordered from most D to most R. Help me out by explaining the reason for rejection.

A: -16.4%, HVAP 58.1%
B: -11.1%, HVAP 59.1%
C: -2.2%
D: +2.2%
E: +3.2%
F: +4.7%
G: +5.9%
H: +7.0%
I: +9.4%

I like it. Which map is this?

It's not posted yet. I'm looking for comments before people lock into the visuals.

Yeah, and I can just smell two of your CD's looking like the below.  You just love racial gerrymanders don't you? 

[Torie]

Can you put up a closeup of the metro Phoenix CD's muon2?

[Torie]

Lewis, your Phoenix thing is never going to be drawn by a court, or in a compromise map - never. You're daydreaming again.