Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
Posts: 46,101
Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70
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« on: November 07, 2011, 08:04:53 PM » |
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« edited: November 07, 2011, 08:08:48 PM by Torie »
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Just for fun, I compared the old partisan numbers for NB-02 versus the new ones, since Sabato said Obama might work the CD which might help Nelson a tad, since it didn't change much. I doubt Obama will be spending much time in Omaha this time, but whatever. The Dave Bradlee utility has the partisan numbers wrong (probably missing absentee votes), but the change factor should still reveal the delta function a bit. There isn't much of one 0- maybe 20 basis points in the GOP direction. The Pubs didn't want to split the Omaha based county (Douglas), so they just switched out Sarpy County (the west end being put in NB-02, and the east end being put out), to cancel out the the partisan damage that less of Sarpy could be included (the size of the the CD needed to be cut by 25,000 persons).
Old CD
New CD
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