US House Redistricting: New York

[Torie]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

[Torie]

Isn't the special master drawing the maps deliberately being kept in the dark per the judge's order as to where incumbents live?

[Torie]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

this answer your question

Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

everything this guy has ever said on this forum regarding Jews screams he's an anti semite.

Oh, well that reflects the opinion of one poster about the political and social opinions one one small segment of the Jewish population. That poster posts similar things about  Dutch-Americans in their enclaves, and the LDS, and any other group whose opinions in high percentages he finds execrable. It is not about their ethnicity, it is about their opinions. Is he being perhaps excessively intolerant about that, using hyperbolic language in some instances? Of course in my opinion. But it's not Jew hatred qua Jew hatred.

Let's move on, if we possibly can. Thanks.

[Torie]

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

You know, the Albany CD does not have to be an ugly duckling.

[Torie]

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.

Muon2 gives high salience to minimizing county splits (I had one more in the Albany area than Muon2 because I wanted to keep the Albany metro area together). It was interesting that the Minnesota court gave pretty high salience to minimizing county splits too, messing with the prior court drawn lines to cut territory from MN-04 that it had before to kick it out of Dakota County (territory that are inner-burbs tied to the hip to St. Paul), and having it take most of Washington County instead. That was sort of a surprise.

[Torie]

The application of the least change rules, where the number of CD's is changed, may be a case of first impression. And I am not sure if for federal courts, it is mandatory or not in any event. And does it matter whether the old map was a bipartisan one (albeit a bipartisan gerrymander), which it was in NY, or a one party partisan gerrymander, in which event, that one party gerrymander would go on forever unless the other party captured the power trifecta, or it got into state court. Just how things end up in federal or state court is another mystery.

[Torie]

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.

Muon2 gives high salience to minimizing county splits (I had one more in the Albany area than Muon2 because I wanted to keep the Albany metro area together). It was interesting that the Minnesota court gave pretty high salience to minimizing county splits too, messing with the prior court drawn lines to cut territory from MN-04 that it had before to kick it out of Dakota County (territory that are inner-burbs tied to the hip to St. Paul), and having it take most of Washington County instead. That was sort of a surprise.

I was raised in MN. Perhaps that's where I get that predilection. Truthfully it shows up in many other states as a priority as well.

It most certainly does! 

[Torie]

Yes, Turner is flushed. That is the bad news for the Pubs. The good news however on Long Island, is that while King is made more marginal, he should hang on, while it is not clear whether Israel can hang on with his CD having a lot of new territory. His CD is now close to dead even from a partisan baseline standpoint.  McCarthy's CD is now but weak lean or tilt Dem, and she may have trouble too. She is no dominatrix, and also has a lot of new territory, although not as much as Israel. All in all, the 4 Long Island CD's give me a warm fuzzy feeling from a partisan standpoint. They're all pretty marginal, and the obnoxious and irritating King (why do Pubs in Congress named King seem to annoy me so?) no longer has a free ride (but should be in better shape than either McCarthy or Israel), while Israel and McCarthy may have a struggle. Israel in particular is going to need to get more moderate in a hurry. Perfecto!

Upstate looks pretty good for the Pubs too. Hinchey is flushed, and Burkle should have a fighting chance to hang on, although I have not drawn anything but the 4 Long Island CD's. The map is not exact, but it is close enough for government work.  I drew it in a hurry. If Krazen's numbers are from a published source, my bad I guess to the extent I am off.

Hey Lewis, the Meeks CD butted into Nassau County in almost the exact way that I previously drew it.

[Torie]

I don't like the special master's map because it screws Hochul.

It was a Pub CD before, and Hochul just had a temporary lease on it due to special circumstances.

[Torie]

Owens may be saved again.

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side.

[Torie]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

[Torie]

Owens may be saved again.

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side.

McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ".

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.

[Torie]

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.

Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.

[Torie]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.

Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?

[Torie]

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  

If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)

The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.

The Pubs had better demand getting Turner back in exchange for propping up the Long Island Dems, and other assorted and sundry incumbents (except for Hochul) or I will join NYJew in howling myself.

If I were a Pub in the NY legislature, I would refuse to abandon this map absent something pretty succulent. I quite like this map, the Turner issue aside.

[Torie]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.

Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?

around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

It means what do the odds makers think as to the likelihood of one guy or the other winning. If you handicap a race, that means you are placing odds on it, just like betting on the horses at the race track.

It sounds like a pretty Pub friendly district. Why was a Dem representing it?

[Torie]

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.

Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.

Um, that picture is really kind of misleading, as it cuts off a nearly 100,000-person strong section of the old NY-25 in Monroe County.  The district's center may not have been near Rochester, but it definitely contained more Rochester suburbs than it does now.

Plugging in DRA, it appears the part Buerkle lost is about 97,000 people who voted for Obama 51-48, whereas she gains 142K voters who were slightly more Dem, 54-44 Obama.  So it moves a point to the left, probably.

Yes, I didn't notice the Monroe salient, so I understand Sam's point now, except that Buerkle lives in Syracuse, not Monroe County, so maybe I still don't understand it. Her CD got 55 basis points (.55%) more Dem to be exact. The Obama share of the two party vote went up from 56.7% to 57.2%. Yes of course she is vulnerable, unless she is in the mensch category. But she is hardly "dead meat" it seems to me.

[Torie]

Because it's the Jewish Parts of Brooklyn and while Republicans can get 90% there they can also get 0%.

But won't in this election, of course. Ought to be an R pickup.


Buerkle would have needed her district to get a good more R to have anything like even odds of not having a Democrat in there by 2016 til the end of the decade. Staying the same wouldn't have helped her much.

Yes, Lewis, that goes without saying.

[Torie]

Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.

Seems like the right question to ask doesn't it? 

[Torie]

Lewis that cat pic in your signature looks exactly like the best cat I ever had when I was a teenager, Tawny. She was part Maine Coon cat, and at once affectionate, playful (she would even fetch), and take walkies with you. I felt very sad when I had to abandon her when I left home for college. I still miss her.

[Torie]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

[Torie]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

[Torie]

That Senate map is hideous. Look at the butchering of Ithaca. Hasn't Cuomo already said he's vetoing it no matter what?

Are any of the ex-incumbents showing any interest in running? Hall would certainly have a pretty good chance against Hayworth in that district considering how he did in 2010 and so would Murphy against Gibson.

BTW I don't see how the new NY-4 could be vulnerable, it's true that McCarthy is an idiot but the issue she's an idiot about isn't exactly toxic in Long Island, the GOP isn't going to win a 55% Obama district there by running on gun rights. Israel should be fine too if he could still win by double digits in 2010, just shifting his seat a few points to the right isn't going to do him in.

Neither had serious opponents in 2010. They just weren't targeted.

[Torie]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

[Torie]

Well there is chatter that a Constitutional deal is in the works, that will effectively make it impossible for there to be a Dem gerrymander in NY ever. If one party controls both houses, it takes a two thirds majority to pass a map. Otherwise it goes to a commission. If power is split, then it takes just a simple majority, and bi-partisan gerrymanders can go on and on - forever and ever, which is just the way NY politicians like it. They want to represent sinecure like seats, not competitive ones. So the specter of the GOP losing the Senate at the wrong time, and being shut out of the state the way the Pubs are in Mass, has had a stake put in its heart. That Pub nightmare will no longer interfere with their sleeping restfully at night.

The Dems are acting very curiously all in all, to say the least. If I were a Dem in NY, I would be furious.  How can they stand to be represented by this passel of wall-to-wall hacks?