GOP house gains in 2012?

[Torie]

I'm laughing at all the people talking about the VRA. Justice Kennedy has given every indication that he is ready to overturn it. In fact, libtards were screaming back in 2009 during NAMUDNO that it was all but over for the VRA. The fact that the Roberts' court kept the decision narrow doesn't mean that the VRA is safe. Only that they are waiting for the right case to get rid of the whole thing.

Do you have some reference to the bolded bit?  I have never picked up that buzz, and if it is out there, I would love to read about it, along no doubt with our resident expert on the lacunae of our insane line drawing laws, Mr. Muon2. 

[Torie]

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Look back to controversy surrounding NAMUD in 2009. The liberals were scared to death that Kennedy was going to strike down the entire act in that case. The Roberts' court, keeping with form, kept the decision narrow, but there is virtually universal agreement that the VRA's days are numbered, and the Court merely needs the right case to give it the heave ho forever.

Here is one example of the liberal moaning: "Justice Anthony Kennedy, whose vote will be crucial, voiced deep concern about the differential treatment of states under the law, and the affront to the sovereignty of the states that are required to go through the preclearance procedures."

It was Kennedy that got rid of Bonilla's seat in Texas, enforcing his interpretation of the VRA, that one needs to look at VAP percentages, rather than population percentages, and that creating offsetting majority-minority districts elsewhere that do not tie communities of interest together, is a dog that won't hunt. So, if Kennedy wants to dump it all now, he has had a change of heart.

[Torie]

Phil, you linked article suggests that the Pubbies will not have free reign to gerrymander the sh*t out of PA. Was this procedure in play in 2001?  I mean, the lines are drawn by a committee of 5, with the swing vote supposedly impartial. So just how would the GOP get their fantasy map even on the table to vote upon?

CC:  Muon2

[Torie]

I don't that the DOJ can demand more minority-majority districts that are erose, and not dictated by adjacent communities of interest. So I don't see a lot more being demanded myself. But the law in this area is tough to get a handle on. Muon2 keeps reminding me of that, the bastard - he knows just too damn much! 

[Torie]

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I just had to chuckle about that one. I guess in some instances, the nexus between chaos theory and politics at the moment has not been fully fathomed yet.

Seriously, the bell curve of possible outcomes is very flat now, with a very high standard deviation. Just throw out what came before in the garbage. And who really knows what Obama is thinking? I certainly don't. The man is a sphinx at the moment. I suspect he is still pondering what forks in the road to take, and even if he decides, it may rapidly be overtaken by events.

We are living in very interesting times, as the Chinese would put it.