Maybe Ras is the exception. And no, I suspect it will be a reasonably tight race. But poll movements based on quite different turnout models than what came before, I do question. I don't think the turnout models have changed much as to what is the reality, and the pollsters and the prevarications of the respondents just give them a very tough job - particularly if it is now more PC than a month ago to say you will vote if you are a Dem - with no intention of actually doing so.
Here is an analysis of the Ras movement (undecided Dems deciding for Sestak) from a partisan Pubbie, yes, but I tend to agree with his analysis, and would be very surprised if Toomey lost, absent some overall last minute shift in the overall national partisan environment.
