MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%

[Torie]

MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling:  Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%

Assuming this poll is real, the Dems are facing a wipeout in Michigan.

[Torie]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

[Torie]

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, (...) How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up.

Sigh... 10-5 R with that map does not actually mean an R lead in the popular statewide vote. (As in, not necessarily.)

Yes, that is true actually. MI-9 is a couple of points more GOP than the state. I was surprised. I thought it GOP days of old had totally faded away. Apparently not quite. Still, if the Dems won the state while losing MI-9, it would not be by much in all probability. Now if Dingell goes down ...

[Torie]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

Slightly off-topic, but the Jews have pretty much moved into this district, except (as can be the case elsewhere) some ultra-Orthodox Russians. But basically Levin's district is a UAW area shored up by a limb over to black Southfield via LGBT/generic "hip" liberal Ferndale.

(edit: by "this" I mean MI-9, the original thread topic, just to be clear).

Excellent points. And I forgot about the black Southfield salient, to anneal Levin's district.