US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

You can get OH-10 up to about 2% GOP PVI, or a bit more, if you abandon the Kuch must win his primary gig, and thin out the OH-11 Akron prong, and suck up more Dem precincts in east Cleveland instead.

Well, actually, that revision gets OH-10 up to 1.1% GOP PVI, assuming that you want to respect municipal boundaries, and keep the CD looking pretty. Down and dirty and ugly might get it up to a 2% GOP PVI. And as OH-10 goes up in GOP PVI, OH-16 will go down, and down by a bit more, since the map becomes a bit less efficient, but it was at 7% GOP PVI before.

[Torie]

Well here is a compromise map that has OH-10 at GOP PVI +0.5%.  It respects municipal boundaries. Screwing around with the OH-14 and OH-11 borderland, while respecting municipal boundaries, would hurt OH-14, which can't afford to be hurt. If there is a way to do better, while respecting the boundaries, then great. But I don't think the map makers are going to make a hash of the boundaries, to pick up a point or less.  It didn't happen last time, and won't happen this time.

[Torie]

[Torie]

Lots of rumors out there, but a three way split means that all three CD's will have little or no GOP PVI, or at least one of them will be a lean Dem CD.  I mean, the map from 10 years ago was a 2.5 CD split. OH-07 sucks up about 20-25 heavily Dem precincts in the existing chop.

However, by creating a swing CD in the Cleveland area, you shove two other CD's into safe GOP territory, as they both pick up a couple of GOP PVI points- OH-06 and OH-16.  Ceding Columbus to the Dems just makes the safe GOP CD's around it even safer. It doesn't increase your GOP congressperson body count expectations. So the latest rumor about creating a Kuch friendly CD, that he may have trouble holding in the General, has some psephological logic to it.

I should note, that the current incumbent in the current OH-18, Gibbs, is thrown into the trash in this map.  Holmes county was needed to prop up OH-12. I tried to create a fair fight between him and Renasci (sp) in OH-16, or semi fair fight, but it was too "expensive" to leave Holmes in OH-16, so it was detached.  So Gibbs can run against Tiberi in his east side of Columbus and burbs based CD, or retire, or move to the Cleveland burbs to run against Kuch.  In a word, he's done in this map. He's the odd man out. It was just the way the map drew itself, to get the PVI's where they needed to be.

[Torie]

I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say. 

[Torie]

As we all know, a 3 way split moves the two Columbus seats to the swing category.  And all those black voters are between the white parts of Columbus and the southern tier of counties south of Franklin, that make up OH-07.  But I suppose Austria's base of Greene County can be moved into OH-03, and OH-04 still take some of the black precincts slicing down to its east, and OH-15 pick up some of Warren and Clinton counties from which it is currently shut out now. And I won't have the time to do the map for some while now. Oh well.

But I see there is still the issue of how to insert OH-04 into Columbus without blocking OH-15 getting to the south.

[Torie]

This also appears to be about shoring up Johnson, whose district is a swing district with a misleadingly low D PVI because Obama tanked so badly in Appalachia. If you want to keep Gibbs and Johnson around and eliminate Dems in the northeast without making OH-6 fall to the Dems, Johnson has to take some Republican territory from Gibbs, and Gibbs has to take from Austria.

I got Johnson up to a 6.8% GOP PVI with a reasonable looking CD, and the geography does not allow it to go any higher really, if OH-16 is going to take all of Stark ex Canton because OH-10 is going to take the GOP somewhat friendly Cleveland southern and western burbs. But Gibbs can come back to life with a safe GOP seat, just like Austria's was (his was 7.5% GOP PVI per my map). The OH-07 chop could however potentially make OH-04, and OH-12 a bit less erose looking however, and OH-12 and OH-05 more suburban rather than taking chunks of territory that is more rural to the north.  Gibbs could take that territory instead.

[Torie]

The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP.

That changes the game a whole lot in Northeast Ohio. We can have a lean R OH-10 without nasty looking borders now.

It also gives the Pubbies more flexibility in shoving the Pubbie PVI's around between CD's.  And might explain why the focus on Austria, since that frees up Pubbies within reach of the Cleveland/Akron area.  I still don't understand how the Columbus chop will work however from the south, given the location of the blacks in Columbus on its south side. That makes a quad chop tough.

[Torie]

Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much.

[Torie]

Round and round we go, and where we stop, nobody knows. So we map on the rumors.

It is kind of a "tight fit" into Columbus this time from the north, with the two pseudopods thrusting to the south.  Is it really an improvement from the previous map, that left OH-07 alone, rather than moving it north of Columbus from the south?  No. Not that I can see; well it does make some of the CD's look a bit squarer, and OH-15 looks nice in Franklin County. Whatever.  

[Torie]

Word from Marcy Kaptur's office:

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That sounds like they are pushing to shove the south Cuyahoga, and the more Pubbie parts of Lorain CD, from marginal into a lean GOP CD. It will be interesting whether they follow municipal lines, or just go for the gold precinct by precinct the way my original map did. The rumor of drawing a CD that Kucinich would win a Dem primary in seems by the boards. I still don't quite get what the Pubbies gain by moving OH-07 from the south side of the Columbus metro area to the north side having drawn a map using that alternative. Granted it does give OH-15 and Stivers more of his old stomping ground in white Columbus, while he has to give up half of it if OH-04 pokes in from the south end, rather than from the north.

[Torie]

Except that, as you know muon2, you can do a quad chop of Columbus without moving OH-07 to the north of the Columbus metro area.  So I am genuinely puzzled. The only reason to do it that I can fathom is to keep Shiver's OH-15 more similar to what it is now. Can you think of any other reason?

[Torie]

Except that, as you know muon2, you can do a quad chop of Columbus without moving OH-07 to the north of the Columbus metro area.  So I am genuinely puzzled. The only reason to do it that I can fathom is to keep Shiver's OH-15 more similar to what it is now. Can you think of any other reason?

I assume it has to do with both Shivers and Tiberi. Perhaps they wanted Austria to move closer to Columbus, and he wasn't going. It does look to me that Beavercreek is better used to offset Dayton than to swing east towards Columbus. You have it that way in your map, too.

The map I originally prepared that did not shred the existing CD-07, left Beavercreek and Greene County in OH-07, and used the existing portion of Warren and all of Clinton Counties to offset Montgomery County. The move OH-07 to the north plan that I drew used Greene for the Dayton offset along with still some of Warren because that was the rumor. But you would think that Austria would have accepted a bit more of Columbus if the alternative was to lose his district, particularly since his CD can still be make quite safe (above 5% or maybe 6% GOP PVI as I recall).  So to me it remains a mystery, absent Stivers not liking what his CD would look like, and/or Tiberi not liking using the northern counties running rather far afield for his offset, rather than going south to pick up Fairfield County, etc, which are nearer by and with which maybe he feels more comfortable. But are rather egocentric reasons for both of them, but whatever.

I wonder if we will ever really know what the motives were here, assuming this is what will happen.

[Torie]

The lake makes OH-09 contiguous eh? LOL. If that is the way the game is played, I could have saved a lot of time!  Euclid was always a pain in the ass for me to deal with. But if using a boat is good enough, it's a piece of cake man.

The Pubs were probably wise to throw in the towel on Columbus. The trends suck there for the Pubs. Granted Tiberi and Shivers are talented, but this is a ten year deal.

No Akron prong though. That is a surprise. I guess the Pubs are confident a less than 50% black Cleveland CD will hold up in court. They are probably right.

I haven't looked very closely at the rest of the map yet. I do see that they went for the Canton prong, and right through Alliance just like I did.

I must say the Pubs are not shy about creating butt ugly maps. And I now know why they canned Austria. It was because they are ceding Columbus, so someone needed to go.

[Torie]

Torie, I owe you an apology for refusing to believe OH republicans would draw a map this convoluted.

It's worse than mine!  I only convoluted the Dem sinks in general. They just went all over the place. That pink thing in Krazen's map is just ludicrous. I mean the Columbus burb CD's both go down to the Butternut Ohio River!  Why?

[Torie]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

Oh. I thought you copied the real map. Hopefully someone will put up the real map in a way that I can see it, or copy it on the Bradlee utility.  I have tired old eyes. I have trouble reading some of the maps put it.  That is why I make mine big and bright! 

[Torie]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

[Torie]

I mapped it on the DRA as best I could (ie. without splitting precincts and a little ambiguous on some municipality splits) and came up with this:

OH-1: Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+6.73
OH-2: Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+8.72
OH-3: OPEN (D-Columbus) D+15.01
OH-4: Jordan (R-Urbana) R+8.20
OH-5: Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.27
OH-6: Johnson (R-Marietta) R+8.11
OH-7: Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+6.06
OH-8: Boehner (R-West Chester) R+13.38
OH-9: Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Kucinich (D-Cleveland) D+12.17
OH-10: Turner (R-Dayton), and Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.78
OH-11: Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+28.36 50.28% Black VAP
OH-12: Tiberi (R-Galena) R+9.52
OH-13: Ryan (D-Niles) D+9.63
OH-14: LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+4.20
OH-15: Stivers (R-Columbus) R+7.56
OH-16: Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Sutton (D-Copley)R+6.02

I am a little disappointed the GOP drew something that ugly and it isn't even an exceptionally well done gerrymander. A lot of the nasty-ness is just unnecessary.

I guess the mappers took Brittain33's advice seriously that the Butternut CD (OH-06) needed to really be Pubbed up to take into account all those "one time" McCain voters who otherwise love Dems.  

[Torie]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010.

jimrtex and I have been discussion this rating on the competition thread. We suspect it gives a slightly more GOP tinge than exists in reality.

Compared to the PVI numbers that TJ was good enough to generate, they look pretty close to those figures don't they?  Thanks TJ for doing that for us.

[Torie]

Who was the first on here to argue they might chop Toledo?
Give that man a price.

I chopped Toledo in my first map that took OH-09 into Cleveland. You have to, to get there and stay within the population limit. I must have excised about 20 precincts.

[Torie]

I think this Toledo chop was well beyond what any of us had been expecting.

But in some ways it's not too surprising. In the competition map, all of Lucas is kept intact with the hard R NW counties. The result is a district that is only 51.5% D. By keeping the most heavily black areas of Toledo in CD 9, the remainder is no problem for CD 4 and 5 to absorb.

How many precincts did they take out of the city of Toledo itself? I think I took out about 20, maybe a tad more - basically everything over about 43% McCain or something that was within reach, or some such number. It in part entailed a snake running about one precinct wide and about 12 precincts deep in the southern part of Toledo, along with some bits on its west side. It was enough that the CD ceased to be a Lucas County dominated CD.

[Torie]

They chopped off about half the city. My map is only a crude approximation because they split a bunch of precincts, but I did make the populations right to within a precinct or two. They split off precincts where McCain was in the 20s. The only reason I can see why they left most of that western wedge was because Kaptur lives there.

Oh my! The Pubbies in Ohio must all be taking testosterone shots in even larger doses than I am, and I cheat on my dosage as it is. 

[Torie]

The main reason why they needed to split Toledo like that is because they put more of Akron into OH-11 than our maps on this site had expected. We were more or less assuming they would just throw in a slice of Akron to get to 50.1% VAP black -- and no more. They decided instead to put a considerable portion of Akron into OH-11 and drew OH-9 into more of the west side of Cleveland. This results in having a less-packed OH-13 and an ugly OH-9.

I still don't understand some of the decisions they made in drawing OH-9. For instance, if they just included Benton Township in Ottawa County (~55% Obama and only about 2,000 people) it would be contiguous by road. They also could have peeled off a decent slice of Erie County and Lorain County that is way more marginal than many of the Toledo precincts they put into OH-4 and 5. We're probably talking 30,000-40,000 people in areas 50-55% Obama.

That was a bit of it, but it was more that the bridge used from Cleveland to Akron was so populous, and oddly enough, so GOP. Bath is prime GOP country. Quite nutter actually. It makes no sense at all. LaTourette could have found his few extra pubbies elsewhere. And part of it is the obsession to keep townships whole I guess, while the rest of the map is a mess.

[Torie]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

[Torie]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

Nope, I pulled his deed when I did my Columbus chop. Lawyers can do that. We're special.