TX-23: Republican internal poll shows Republican leading (surprising, I know)

[Torie]

The district is semi marginal, so if Ciro has problems with his personal ethics, it is not that much of a surprise, particularly in this election cycle.

Addendum: Oh, it is the the GOP guy with problems. Well, that suggests that the Dems this year look to do as well with Hispanics in Texas, as it appears they will do in California. No wonder Obama is flogging the immigration issue. It makes sense, in that sense.

[Torie]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

[Torie]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas.  

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

Be forewarned though - Ciro is always very good at turning out his voters in the San Antonio barrios even if the numbers and his lack of money indicate otherwise.  This does not mean, of course, spectacular turnout, but it means the Hispanic turnout will likely be slightly higher than statewide average, specifically in the Bexar County part of this CD only.

Yes, I agree. That precise area may be the [most] politicized (and organized) Hispanic area in the US come to think of it (outside of course of the Cuban community). What do you think?