UK Election - Results Thread

[Torie]

For the Yanks among us, CSPAN-3 will be simulcasting the BBC coverage commencing at 4:55 pm EST for several hours. Enjoy.

[Torie]

For the Yanks among us, CSPAN-3 will be simulcasting the BBC coverage commencing at 4:55 pm EST for several hours. Enjoy.

I'll have to watch it online.  I don't get C-SPAN 3 in my apartment (and they got rid of C-SPAN 2 recently too).

Inks, you might consider "stickying" my post so folks can find the link easily, or put up the link yourself, or if you can't do it because it is not a board that you moderate, suggest it to the mods that do. Thanks.

[Torie]

The election wasn't even the main headline on BBC News At One....

That's because the BBC's guidelines insist it cannot be!

Any particular reason why?

Perhaps it is because of a desire not to have any political content while folks are voting based on a concern about late "hits" or something.

[Torie]

LD flame out. The commentators were themselves skeptical. If this holds, I wonder what caused the LD rose to wilt.

[Torie]

Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

[Torie]

Believe I told Al a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised in the LibDems underperformed a bit (because of movement back to Tories and Labour).  We'll see whether the exit polls are right or not on this one.

It is more than a bit really. Heck, Labor with the exit poll seat numbers can't form a majority even with the LD's on board.

[Torie]

Why does Silver have the popular vote numbers and we don't, and why is his number 341, while the exit poll is 307?

He did backwards math; since the exit poll is based on UNS, he plugged the exit poll seat numbers into the UNS calculator to find what the popular vote would be, and then plugged that into his model, which he argues is more accurate than UNS.

Splendid, but where did he get the exit poll percentage numbers?

[Torie]

The BBC said the swing to the Tories from Labor was twice as high in open seats than sitting incumbent seats. I wonder how that will affect the seat totals.

[Torie]

7.0% swing to the Tories in England
1% swing to Labour in Scotland and Wales

And 2% swing from the LD's to the Tories. Somehow I don't quite believe this exit poll entirely.

[Torie]

I'm trying to imagine the first result of the 2010 U.S. House election being announced so dramatically...

I think we call Sunderland South Dixville Notch and Harts Corners here during Presidential races.

LOL.

[Torie]

I find the BBC drone hectoring some poor Labor spokesperson saying Brown should just drown himself since he was rejected, a bit annoying. The BBC guy is getting beyond himself. Geez!

[Torie]

I find the BBC drone hectoring some poor Labor spokesperson saying Brown should just drown himself since he was rejected, a bit annoying.

That's Jeremy Paxman. It's his job to be annoying.

Brits enjoy watching aholes on the tube?

[Torie]

Is there any election coverage streaming online?

Look on the first couple of pages of this thread for links.

[Torie]

How does one concoct "notional" results to calculate swings in seats with new boundaries without individual polling place results from the last election?  Anyone know?

[Torie]

How come the LibDems are so strong at Cornwall?

History.

I hoped for a more elaborate answer.

I asked the team of Brit voting experts and I think Al confirmed it was tradition based on Cornwall being of dissenter religion, not Anglican, in an era when religion was the most salient factor in more rural areas rather than class. Dissenters in rural areas voted for the Liberal party, and did not switch to Labor when that party gained traction.

[Torie]

why isn't Al online? this is a travesty

Maybe he was working the precincts, and went to his constituency vote result place to hear the result of his seat, and to meet his pals etc. Maybe he has a life.

[Torie]

Al said he had some problem with his internets as well I think

Ya, perhaps in internets across the pond are clogged due to the election, although we do seem to have some other Brits with us. Or maybe Wales is relatively backward when it comes to internet lines.

[Torie]

How does one concoct "notional" results to calculate swings in seats with new boundaries without individual polling place results from the last election?  Anyone know?

I don't know, but could think of a few ways - one just straight-line based on the populations in from a new constituency and those put out.  Or some sort of regression analysis based on the sociodemographic factors in the areas in and out.

Precinct-level data would be best, but it could be done.

Reasonable, but it will have a higher degree of error obviously, unless the analysis is very sophisticated, with very careful demographic data, and inferential modeling based on past results, all of which I doubt in fact was done, because it would be very expensive to generate such data, and then adjust it for interim demographic shifts, and the UK is more demographically active these days then it has been in the past.

[Torie]

So far, all that is in are three safe Labour seats where people could cast a protest vote against Brown secure in the knowledge that it wouldn't matter.  If I were a Tory, I'd wait to see how some marginal seats perform before doing any victory dances.

It is just so boring to say something so sensible. Can't you reach a bit more?

[Torie]

So far, all that is in are three safe Labour seats where people could cast a protest vote against Brown secure in the knowledge that it wouldn't matter.  If I were a Tory, I'd wait to see how some marginal seats perform before doing any victory dances.

It is just so boring to say something so sensible. Can't you reach a bit more?

Clearly people in Sunderland, knowing that they would be first to report, declined to vote Lib Dem so as to increase the shock when Clegg is called to meet with the Queen tomorrow.

Better?

Well it did cause a very brief buzz of my synapses, but alas the high was far too ephemeral, since well, while Clegg may "do"  queens for all I know, and don't care (but he is a handsome chap), that is rather different than meeting The Queen.  

[Torie]

Electoral Commission aren't happy with the stories of lockouts at 10pm and will investigate.

Remember people, after 10pm your vote won't count and you may be charged.

If British law does not allow voters to vote if they are in line by 10 pm, but because there is a  line, can't then vote, that is well nutter. That is not true in all 50 of the states. If you are in line by poll closing time, you get to vote - period.

[Torie]

Anybody know when the next results are gonna come in?

Someone creditable said the results would start to flood in, around 1 pm London time, or five hours earlier EST, or in well about 40 minutes from the time stamp of this post.

[Torie]

BBC dude says Lucas probably took Brighton Pavilion.

Tracking Cameron's car is incredibly stupid and ridiculous.

The BBC loves doing that. I remember back when, when Major was winning, they spent about 20 minutes from a helo tracking his journey on the arterials from 10 Downing to his Hertfordshire constituency for the vote announcement. It was very curious.

[Torie]

LD wins a seat in the southwest, Torbay, with swing to them from the Tories of
1.1%.Gosh, this is a fun election. I'm jealous!

Tories retain Putney by a big swing. Yawn. I suspect the Tories will do very well relatively in London area marginals.

[Torie]

Battersea - gain from Labour to Conservatives.  No numbers yet.

If the Tories had not won this seat, then the projected macro numbers would just not work at all.