MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[Torie]

Is heath care dead even if Brown loses narrowly?  Maybe.  I know I am squirting lighter fluid on Joe hate around here (almost everyone around here (except me) seems to almost viscerally loathe the man), but is Joe off the health care bill reservation? What do you think?

Lieberman Speaks   [Robert Costa]

From the Hill:

    A victory for Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts would send a message that voters are "really skeptical about this healthcare bill," Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said Tuesday.

    Lieberman ultimately voted for that legislation, after weeks of negotiations between his camp and the Democrats with whom he caucuses.

    But the senator told Fox News' Neil Cavuto Tuesday afternoon that a defeat today of one of the bill's strong supporters — Democratic candidate Martha Coakley — would still "be a very loud message from Massachusetts."

    "Well, it's pretty clear that, if Scott Brown doesn't win, it's certainly going to be close, and that in itself is newsworthy," Lieberman said. "And I think the message is — from the voters of Massachusetts — that people are anxious about the future and they're unhappy about what's happening in Washington."

    "They're anxious about the economy, the continued high unemployment," he continued. "They don't like all the partisanship and deal-making here in Washington. And they're really skeptical about this health care bill."

[Torie]

Precinct 3 Winchester @6:49 1299 Votes with a long line
Winchester has 8 precincts and cast about 13,000 votes in 2008

Looks like a 70%+ turnout

Winchester has an MPVI of -3 (very slightly Republican), FWIW.

I wonder where the biggest deviation from "normal" pvi behavior will be. Will it be with lower middle class white middle aged voters? Middle aged working class white voters?  What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

[Torie]

Not sure if this will be updated live, but here's the official results page: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

I also found this, if people want to compare results to trends in the past: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218

I will have automatically updating comparisons to the Romney 2002 and Weld 1996 Senate races, plus a (perhaps poor) attempt at an extrapolated turnout comparison to the 2008 presidential election.  2002 and 2008 numbers are the unofficial ones published by the Globe after election day, so how Massachusetts counts absentees is probably irrelevant.

Your spread sheet has more bells and whistles than an aircraft carrier. You must have spent a lot of time constructing it!  I assume that you will be instantly able per your forumlas to see both the pvi and turnout differentials instantly as you enter the numbers town by town. You really are a political junkie aren't you?  

[Torie]

Cinyc most graciously emailed it to me.

[Torie]

What kind of town demographically is Winchester?

70% of the adult population have degrees, 71% of those in employment have managerial or professional occupations and the median household income is over $100k...

Oh. It is kind of like my town then.

[Torie]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

Are these all absentee votes?

[Torie]

Southhampton is complete at 59-40 for Brown. It's in the fairly-D Conn valley and was just about 50% for Patrick in 06 so that's some measure of the shift.

The pvi for southhampton is 7.5% GOP, so that is a 12% margin for Brown, if that swing obtained statewide. Or do you divide the margin by 2 first before slapping on the PVI number? If the latter, than that is a 2% margin.

[Torie]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

What was Obama's percentage win in Mass as a whole, which we subtract from these numbers to get a projected margin in this race?

[Torie]

Coakley from Obama:

Ashland: -31.14%

Holland town: -36.75%

Monroe town (tiny): -33.09%

Middleton: -31.28%

Oxford: -39.52%

These are not sustainable numbers.  The only caveat is that we have nothing from the Boston metro yet.  They are consistent with a win of 5% to 10%, maybe a tick more.

What was Obama's percentage win in Mass as a whole, which we subtract from these numbers to get a projected margin in this race?

Obama won Massachusetts 62 to 36.

So we subtract or add 26% to get the tie number in this race?

[Torie]

Belmont (Romney's home town), is all in, and Brown is 15% ahead of its pvi, ie a 30% margin corrected for pvi.

Addendum:  Oh, I reversed the numbers. Brown is short by 3%, which translates into a 6% Coakley win. So in a rich town, the swing is inadequate for a Brown win.

[Torie]

Holyoke - Coakley won by 12 Al.  May still be some hope for her, though that is worse than any Dem ever.

Fall River is all in. Coakley 57%, Brown 41%. Meanwhile, Coakley lost Achushnet - which went over 60% for O'Brien. Brünnhilde is burning.

Corrected for pvi, that is a 10% Brown margin.

[Torie]

Other than Belmont which I know Brown is short of his pvi by 3%, how many other towns is Brown short in?  He is ahead of his PVI in  Boston at the moment by 3%, with about half the vote in.  Does a 7% Brown margin sound reasonable, assuming marginally lighter turnout in Dem areas?

[Torie]

Well now Boston is even with the pvi with another slug of votes in.

[Torie]

The Democratic majority in Congress is finished -imagine the burst of momentum the GOP is going to have from this going forward...

Come on. To suggest that this election is going to cause the GOP to take one or both houses back is ludicrous. It might happen, but unlikely, and we have a long time to go until November.

[Torie]

Thanks cinyc for all of your hard work. Your charts that you post here are beautifully presented, and you help to explain the why. Without the differential turnout, it would have been quite a tight election, as Coakley say in Boston goes ahead of the pvi now by a couple of points, with about 80% counted. Coakley's operatives were right that they knew they lost, given the light turnout in Boston, and perhaps some other areas where she needed a good turnout, and didn't get it. Any kudos cinyc.

[Torie]

Well they came off the ganja break and brown won Lowell 52-47.

That's amazing in a traditional old mill city.

The pvi was only plus one Dem, so it is a marginal town in a close election. It translates into about a a 7% Brown margin. Most of Cambridge by the way is still out, so I am not sure Brown will manage a 7% margin. It is 5% now, and might stay that way, or drop to maybe 4% depending on what else is still out.

[Torie]

Well they came off the ganja break and brown won Lowell 52-47.

That's amazing in a traditional old mill city.

The pvi was only plus one Dem, so it is a marginal town in a close election. It translates into about a a 7% Brown margin. Most of Cambridge by the way is still out, so I am not sure Brown will manage a 7% margin. It is 5% now, and might stay that way, or drop to maybe 4% depending on what else is still out.

Brown almost won Nantucket.

Nantucket only has a 3% Dem pvi, so it is in line with the swing.

[Torie]

CNN and many other news stations report that Brown won and that Coakley conceded.

Gosh, that is shocking! Thanks for posting this breaking news!  Anyway, good evening. 

[Torie]

Nice and gracious concession speech by C. Some might say it was the best moment of her campaign. 

[Torie]

96% in 5% Brown.

Okay who had 5% in the pool.  

I'm surprised by the size of the victory.

Ya, 5% is a final. North Attleborough (sp) is still all out, which will largely but not entirely cancel Cambridge, and Brown has about a 5.2%-5.3% margin now.

The real psephological geniuses are the Coakley people, who predicted a 5% loss this afternoon, about 2 hours before the polls closed.

[Torie]

Folks - take a second to study those Clinton-Obama 2008 numbers and this election and tell me what you see....  I know Al already sees it.

Democrats had better pay attention. 

Clintonistas bailed in large numbers?  That is hardly shocking.

[Torie]

Folks - take a second to study those Clinton-Obama 2008 numbers and this election and tell me what you see....  I know Al already sees it.

Democrats had better pay attention. 

Clintonistas bailed in large numbers?  That is hardly shocking.

Working-class revolt centered against those in power.

It will take some work to see the differential swings to see just who "revolted" the most, and by how much. What we do know, is that academic areas, and rich liberal areas, hardly revolted at all vis a vis Obama.  Some, but not much, relatively speaking, as to the rich liberal areas.

[Torie]

Why isn't Brown giving a speech about what he wants to accomplish in DC?  

[Torie]

Neither has North Attleborough. Wasn't this Joe Martin's home town? or was that Attleborough itself?

I don't know, but it has a 12% GOP pvi.

[Torie]

Cambridge   33/33   
84%   27,268
15% 4,921
1%   232
 

And now the Obama numbers:

40,876    88%
4,697    10%

So next to no revolt in Cambridge.  I don't know how the turnout decline compares to the statewide decline from 2008.  Cinyc?