JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Torie]

What changes if you assume team GOP gets a ton of money in the next two months, as the sharks smell chum in the water? At the moment, independent expenditures can be unlimited per the SCOTUS decision.

[Torie]

Fair enough.

I have this gut feeling now that we have reached an inflection point, and there is maybe now a 60% chance that there will be a wave, and the GOP will take back the House, and then some. The economic news is just terrible, the Dems are demoralized, with the Left mad at Obama, Obama has really mishandled the immigration issue (this business of not wanting to make the border more secure in order to have leverage to legalize millions of folks, cannot possible sit well with a majority of the voters), and the Dems borrowing another 26  billion to keep public employees employed (ya they say it is paid for, but they ain't cutting food stamps, so that will go by the wayside, just like the slash in doctor reimbursements), insurance premiums are ratcheting up, and emergency rooms are more clogged than ever, since so many docs will not take medicaid patients anymore, because they lose money on them. Can the news get any more terrible?

It looks to me like we may well be heading into a perfect storm, and the boat is not going to make it back to port.

[Torie]

As I say, when it is viewed that a party seems poised to take power, the special interests run to get on the train before it leaves the station. It is about buying access; ideology is secondary for those who need to "manage" Washington to protect their bottom line.

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

[Torie]

Sam, as I say I am extrapolating based on a gut feeling, and a sense that I have that folks are beginning to panic a bit, and/or get really mad, above and beyond the usual suspects of the GOP base. I of course could be totally full of sh**t. But, well, just relying on polls and money all the time gets boring - at least for me. So when a divining  rod magically comes into my hands, I "enjoy" playing with it a bit. It is also hard in this environment for pollsters to predict turnout models - very hard. And finally I am impressed with the high GOP primary turnouts of late, and the low Dem ones. So I am giving myself "permission" to rely on my instincts here a bit. Don't you like to give yourself permission to do stuff, Sam?

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Considering the polling has gone from favoring her by mid-single digits to favoring Reid by mid-single digits, I don't really see what's to explain.

Edit: I would say the odds of a Republican takeover of the House are 50/50 at this point. Which, as I keep saying, would be better for the Democrats than holding on to the House by a slim margin, leaving their agenda to be ripped to shreds (even more than before) by the Blue Dogs.

Yes, I agree that if the goal is to defeat Obama, a GOP gain in the House of about 33 seats would be ideal for the reasons you say. But as for the Senate ... the sky is the limit as to this consideration.  

Let's see what the next poll says about Sharron. I suspect she might even it up. The Dems have had a really terrible couple of weeks - just awful.

[Torie]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Because her opponent is Reid. Any other Democrat in the state would be destroying her soundly.

Of course rather amusingly, facing her is the only reason Reid has a chance.

Yes, you have a point there. Reid is singularly awful. When he speaks, it is like listening to chalk scratch on a chalk board; the guy seems always so f'ing resentful and angry - about everything. And he has zero sense of humor to boot - zero.