Lebanese general election (May 6th 2018)

[oddfellowslocal151]

Turnout is lowest in Beirut, higher in rural areas like Akkar. Beirut I (Ashrafieh + other places) is the place where independent candidates should have the best shot (Koullouna Watani is probably the most likely to get in), who knows with the turnout tho.

Other places of interest: the Metn, where the newly woke Kata'ib should be strongest; Tripoli, where Ashraf Rifi is looking to challenge Hariri; and Bsharri-Zghorta-Batroun-Koura, where a bunch of big political dynasties are running.

the essential blog Moulahazat has a good explainer to the new elections law

@Susannahwalden on twitter has the thresholds per district

[oddfellowslocal151]

Should also mention what the voting system is: (massively simplified) You vote for one candidate in one list. The total number of votes for the list determine seats, and the votes per candidate determine which gets elected. For the last few seats, sect comes into account - if a seat has say, 2 sunni seats and 1 shia seat, and the first two to get in are sunni, then the next seat goes to the highest performing shia (so they jump above other, more popular candidates if the candidates are sunni).

Joumana Haddad from Koulluna Watani is claiming that she's won a seat (Beirut I, minorities).

[oddfellowslocal151]

One more thing that should be mentioned- you vote not from where you live, but from where your ancestral hometown is. So, a ton of people in the southern suburbs of Beirut drive down to villages in the south, and a lot of people in East Beirut drive to Mount Lebanon. Meanwhile, a lot of voters in Beirut actually live out in the suburbs now, and drive back in today to vote (this is also the case, incredibly, in municipal elections. so, there are lots of villages with year-round populations in the double or single digits who swell every election day).

[oddfellowslocal151]

   In general how do Maronite political figures feel about Assad.  Wouldn't they kind of like him as being better, at least in theory, toward the Syrian Christians than most of his opponents?

It runs the spectrum, and is more about the different leaders' stances on the Iran/Saudi split. They all share a common disdain for Syrian refugees, but that's every politician in the country.

...Which reminds me, something to keep in mind is that like 25% of the pop. of the country is Syrian refugees, which, when you add in Palestinian refugees, guest workers, under-21s, and those who abstained from voting, makes this a really small pool of people deciding.