2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

Another great recruitment from the Republican Party!

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1534904409339076608?s=20&t=etP5z8T5yqoR...

Curious that you mentioned Paladino and not Langworthy, who is the NY GOP State Party Chair and is the Odds-On Favourite to be nominated.

[2016]

@gracile


Republicans 215
Democrats 193
Toss Up 27

Their Main House Guru Kyle Kondik though hinted that they might move VA-2 (Luria vs Higgans) to Leans Republican soon.

[2016]

The Democrats are truly screwed this November. A new Monmouth National Poll reveals Top Issue is Inflation at 33 % followed by Gas Prices 15 % and the Economy at 9 %. Abortion only comes in 5th at 5 %.

IT IS OVER FOR DEMOCRATS! CHEKMATE!

[2016]

Monmouth tied at 47-47, was R+4 in May

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/


Harvard-Harris also tied at 50-50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-june/

Those are not good Polls for Democrats see above. Issues matter here!

According to Monmouth if you combine Inflation (33 %), Gas Prices (15 %) and Economy (9 %) you get 57 % which favours Republicans.

[2016]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

Or more likely , elections are just high turnout now and we aren’t ever going back to pre Trump era voter turnout .  Keep in mind the Virginia gubernatorial race was very high turnout for an off year election as T-Mac won more votes than Northam and still lost .


 

Yes, I whole heartedly agree what OSR is saying here. The Notion that Higher Turnout automatically benefits Democrats is becoming a false narrative. Harry Enten of CNN already debunked it.

[2016]

Forget about the GCB Horse Race for a minute.

Midterm Elections are BASE ELECTIONS.

Even if Democrats in some of the Polls have a slight lead underlining in it and nobody is willing to talk about it is the large Enthusiasm Gap between the two Parties. According to a Marquette Law School National Poll Republicans enjoying an 18-Percentage Point Voter Enthusiasm Gap.

CNN has the GCB tied in their latest Poll but they have Republicans enjoying a 12-Point Gap in Voter Enthusiasm.

VOTER ENTHUSIASM matters a lot more the than GCB Horse Race Numbers as we get closer to the Election.

[2016]

Echelon Insights is a Poll done by "NEVER TRUMPERS" Kirsten Soltis Anderson, Alex Castellanos and the Lincoln Project so throw in the bin.

[2016]

Seeing wbrocks67 & Olowakandi crying on November 9th will definitly one of the biggest satisfactions for me since I registered here in November 2016

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

Only 26 % say that the Inflation Reduction Act will actually curb Inflation while a Combined 71 % say Inflation will either stay the same or get worse.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561356586949419008

This is devastating for Biden!

I would say this: Things have stabilized for Republicans especially on the House Front. The Senate is likely gone for Republicans.

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

[2016]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

We'll see on Wisconsin. Senator Johnson has very high Negatives.

Who would have thought Adam Laxalt having a better chance of winning compared to Blake Masters or Herschel Walker. Certainly not me but that's where we are at the moment.

The Economy in NV is still very bad and Governor Sisolaks draconian COVID-19 Mandates did not help either.

[2016]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

LOL, your are one of those people here on Talk Election who puts always a good spin for Democrats no matter the Poll. Maybe we all should call you Spinbrocks instead of wbrocks.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561341939907166209

Country off the Wrong Track at 74 % isn't good News for Biden; 58 % of Americans say the Countries Best Days are behind and 68 % say the Country is in a Recession. That is not good for the WH no matter how Karine Jean-Pierre and Biden tries to spin it.

[2016]

Here is a comparision of NBC POLLS

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561353390063554560

[2016]

The Inflation Reduction Act also has like a 42/31 approval in that same NBC poll, so... certainly being very selective with that.

I should've expected SnowLabrador to make a new thread about the Dobbs bounce after *one* poll.

If anything, the NBC poll is certainly in the MoE, but having the GCB be worse for Dems *right now* than it was in May is certainly a bit of an outlier.

LOL, your are one of those people here on Talk Election who puts always a good spin for Democrats no matter the Poll. Maybe we all should call you Spinbrocks instead of wbrocks.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561341939907166209

Country off the Wrong Track at 74 % isn't good News for Biden; 58 % of Americans say the Countries Best Days are behind and 68 % say the Country is in a Recession. That is not good for the WH no matter how Karine Jean-Pierre and Biden tries to spin it.

Sis you do realize that people have different reasons for saying the country is on the 'wrong track' right? If I was asked that, I'd probably say yes too, b/c of GOP extremism. Doesn't mean I'm voting for Republicans.

You do realize that 68 % say the Country is in a Recession.

[2016]

Democrats have peaked last week. NBC came out last weekend with R+2, now it's CBS/YouGov and they have it too at R+2.

Republicans will come home very late just like they did in 2016.

[2016]

The Democrats need to win the Popular Vote on the House Generic Ballot by 3 Points or more, I personally think closer to 5 Points to have a shot at retaining the House.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1571490482714206208

There are some good and bad News for both Parties in the NBC Poll. Democrats leading Republicans 58-38 among White College Graduates and 53-40 among Women is bad News for Republicans. But in away I expected the Women Gap given the Dobbs Decision (Republicans probably bleeding White Suburban Women with a College Degree)

However the bad News for Democrats is that they are trailing Republicans by even wider margins about Whites without a College Degree (31/64). They also trailing among Independents (37/43) and only have a 46-42 lead among Hispanics.

I just cannot see Democrats retaining the House of Representatives if the lose Independents and winning Hispanics by only 4 Points. Just not happening.

Kentucky & Indiana have Statewide Races and close early. It will be interesting to see how Booker in KY does in the Cincinnati Suburbs (Kenton County, Boone County, Campbell County) and how McDermott will perform in the Donut Counties around Indianapolis.

Indiana could give us some clues how the Abortion Issue plays out. Indiana does have one of the most restrictive Abortion Laws.

[2016]

Please check this out...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571619287252574214

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571605134911672321

So while the Democrats are GLOATING about the NBC Poll these underlying crosstabs are increasingly bad for them. If this is accurate Democrats are finished certainly in the House.

DeSantis & Abbott looks like were the smart ones here bringing back the Issue of Border/Immigration in their States where Republicans have a decided edge based on those Numbers.

When folks are saying the Cost of Living is more important then Abortion by 22 Points that is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE Red Flag for Democrats particularly on the House Side of things.

Democrats have IMO overplayed their hand with the Abortion Issue.

[2016]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

[2016]

If you believe the ABC/WaPo Poll from a week ago there will be a significant overvote from Democrats in SAFE Democratic Districts. Democrats need a 4-5 Popular Vote Win possibly even more to keep the House.

Biden won by 7M+ Votes in 2020, 81M+ to 74M+ yet the Electoral College was 306-232 with a handful of States only being decided by 20K Votes or less.

The Structural Advantage Republicans have in this Midterm IMO have not being talked enough.

YET the Democrats here on Talk Elections and elsewhere keep pushing this narrative that they have a chance at holding the House. No, they don't. It is gaslighting and a pipe-dream. Pelosi & Sean Patrick Maloney know this. They just won't admit it to the Public.

[2016]

Whoever gave my that advice putting Olowakandi on IGNORE - many thanks from me

[2016]

The Suffolk Polls should be discounted especially in a State like PA. This is the same Pollster that told us they won't poll the Obama vs Romney Race in Virginia & Florida in 2012 because Romney had the States in the back. How that turned out?

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

I warn my Democrats friends on the other side: A Popular Vote win in the House Vote means absolutely nothing. You have to win 218 Individual Districts to keep control of the Chamber.

It's like with the Electoral College: You have to win 270 EC Votes.

Pollsters are refusing telling Public how things look like on basis of the GCB in competitive Districts except for that one ABC News Poll.

There is a reason Democrats wanted House Resolution 1 passed so Redistricting would be Federalized.
They want a pure Washington Power Grab.

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

I think he's saying that Democrats will "waste" much of their GCB advantage by piling up unneeded votes in districts that they were already going to win, meaning that they would fall short in close races.  Of course, there is zero evidence for this one way or the other at this point.

ABC/WaPo Poll from last week Sep 25:

And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at
least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid
Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as
big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in
solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent.


So, please stop saying that there is no evidence when there is:
D's lead by 35 Points in Blue Districts
R's lead by 24 Points in Red Districts
R lead 55-34 in competitive Disticts

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections. If anything the GCB Polls are moving more towards Republicans as the "Summer Dobbs Bounce" is fading and Inflation, Gas Prices taking whole again as we go deeper into the autumn when it is inevitable that you'll need more gas as it gets colder outside. I predict and maybe I'm wrong on it that Gas Prices will be equal or even higher what we saw in 2021/2022 come deep Autumn/Early Winter 2022/2023.

Gas Prices are skyrocketing in NV & AZ. That is not good for the D's running in the Districts in those States as well as the Statewide Candidates like CCM, Kelly, Hobbs and Sisolak.

[2016]

2016 is even admitting that Dems will probably win the GCB, and is coping accordingly lol

And, Democrats will still lose the House. It will not be a wave so what? Pelosi had a 222-213 House for the most part of 2021 and 2022 and still got most of her stuff done.

Republicans will win those 6 Seats required to win the House I can guarantee you that.