GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[2016]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

[2016]

NYTimes has Ossoff at 50.01% now.

Unless Ossoff is substantially over 50 % I wouldn't be surprised if Tomlinson is asking for a Recount.

A lot of things went wrong in GA yesterday.

[2016]

Ossoff up to 49.996% statewide with new Fulton County results, they don't seem to be done with absentee votes yet, he's definitely advancing without a runoff.

Where's the best place to look for results?

I received updated Fulton results from here (some county pages on the GA clarity site update before they do on the cumulative statewide page): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/103674/web.247524/#/summary?v=252536%2F

Updated DeKalb results from here: https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/ElectionSummaryReportRPT%20-%206.10.20%20139p.pdf

Thanks! It looks DDHQ has updated Fulton #s but not the updated DeKalb #s yet. That would put him at the 49.996% like you said. Ugh, need this to happen!

NYT, DDHQ, GASOS, NBCNews pages are all on different stages of the updates

NBC NEWS & CNN get their Results from Edison Research Counting. That's THE WORST thing the Networks could have ever done. They should switch it back to the AP.

Edison is hilariously bad at Vote Counting! If this happens on Election Night it might take us a week before we get accurate counts.

[2016]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

[2016]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

[2016]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

You're citing what happened twelve years ago as a predictor for a hypothetical runoff?  The state has changed a lot since then.  I'm not saying that Warnock would necessarily be favored, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk for Collins.

Oh, I don't deny that Georgia has changed but Warnock would not get the AA Support he needs in a Runoff to win especially if the Senate is already decided.
Looking at the past few years only Popular Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards has managed to win a Runoff in a State of the Deep South. That is saying something.

If Democrats want to win in States like GA, AL, MS they have to do it outright on Election Day in November.

[2016]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

By your logic, Ossoff will also outrun Biden since 869,779 votes have been cast in the Presidential primary but 948,438 votes have been cast in the Senate primary.

I'm sure you are old enough to remember the Missouri Senate Election in 2012 between McCaskill and Akin. There was a HUGE Drop-off between the POTUS Race and the Senate Race. Moderate Republicans were voting for Romney but not for Akin.
AND Donald Trump almost behaves like Akin at times.

[2016]

With all but 3 Precincts left to report according to the GA SoS Office Senator David Perdue has 43K more Votes than Trump.

Perdue: 958,560

Trump: 934,773

I'd say right now that Perdue is in better shap in his own Reelection Race compared to Trumps Quest to hang on to GA 15 Electoral Votes.