Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[2016]

Democrats apparently will STEAL yet another House Race

https://apnews.com/637295ca889947e0bb0a0560ff1437a8

Because that Decision by the Judge will most like benefit the Democrat in GA-7. Abrams would need 17.7K Votes to force a Runoff in the Gov Race. She will not get there BUT she likely will help the Democrat Carolyn B. in GA-7 to defeat Incumbent Republican Rob Woddall.

[2016]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

It looks like Love will probably hold on.

Finally. Phew. Long time coming.

[2016]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

Well, if the Provisionals in Utah County break the same way like it's breaking at this moment Love is going to pull this out

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1063592097129750528

[2016]

My take on the remaining Races looking at AP/NYTimes Map:

Rob Woodall (GA-7), Will Hurd (TX 23), Mia Love (UT-4) will hang on bringing the Republican Total to 201.

Democrats will get Gil Cisneros (CA-39) and Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)

Not sure what will happen with Chris Collins (NY-27)

So, it could be 233-202 or 234-201.

[2016]

I disagree a whole lot what Nate Silver wrote on his Twitter about the Senate.

From a historial Perspective what Republicans have done in the Senate since Obama took Office in 2009 is nothing short of SPECTACULAR

2010: They knocked off two Incumbents in Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold
2014: They beat Incumbents in Arkansas (Pryor), Louisiana (Landrieu), Alaska (Begich), Colorado (M. Udall), North Carolina (Hagan)
2018: They defeated Incumbents in Indiana (Donnelly), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Missouri (McCaskill) and Florida (Nelson)

Defeating Incumbents is very hard thing to do.

[2016]

MidTerm Election Turnout 2018 per Dave Wasserman from Cook thus far

110,506,863 Votes

There are 2M I think to count in CA. Still, that's a pretty INSANE Turnout for a MidTerm.

[2016]

CNN finally made 3 Projections in CA for Cisneros, Rouda and Levin bringing the Democratic Total to 232 Seats.

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

[2016]

COUNTY   NET GAIN FOLLOWING ABSENTEE BALLOT COUNT
Broome   Brindisi     +1,319   
Chenango   Awaiting Results   
Cortland   Brindisi   +207   
Herkimer   Brindisi     +80   
Madison   Brindisi    +324   
Oneida   Awaiting Results   
Oswego   Tenney.   +80   
Tioga   Awaiting Results   
 
Brindisi's lead is currently 3,223 votes.  Outstanding ballots: 5,538

Not sure why the AP is holding out to call this. Maybe waiting for absentee results from the final two counties.

CNN has already called the NY-22 Race; They have Brindisi ahead by only 1.827 Votes though.

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

[2016]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

[2016]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Not true. The Health Care Debacle in 2017 cost the GOP those Seats in the same vain Health Care cost the Dems the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.

[2016]

The Democrat won't win the GA-7 Recount.

Final House Tally 235-200 assuming Valadao loses in CA-21.

I predicted 235-200 Pre-Election.

[2016]

The AP has called GA-7 for Woodall.

[2016]

Looks like CA-21 will be the final race to be decided. Will it be D+39 and 234-201 or D+40 and 235-200?!

Given how the late Ballots broke in CA Cox is the Favourite at this Point.

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

Nate, Nate, and Harry vs. 2016.  I know which side I'd bet on.

Cohn, Enten and Silver ARE Clowns.

[2016]

CNN finally calls NM-2 for Torres-Small.

[2016]

I think worth noting that CA Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lead over Kevin De Leon has been cut to 8.4%. Feinstein now leads by under 100K Votes.

CA will probably become more Progressive in the years to come. I'd say Feinstein although she already filed for Re-Election in 2024 is TOAST if she makes it that far.

[2016]

I think worth noting that CA Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lead over Kevin De Leon has been cut to 8.4%. Feinstein now leads by under 100K Votes.

CA will probably become more Progressive in the years to come. I'd say Feinstein although she already filed for Re-Election in 2024 is TOAST if she makes it that far.

De Leon's overperformance was one of this year's biggest surprises. And I definitely do believe that this will be Feinstein's last term.

I certainly didn't expect it under 10% Points BUT

Feinstein 5,910,066 54,2%
De Leon 4,986,925 45,8%

Difference: 923,141

[2016]

Republicans will win back the House. If not in 2020 then certainly in 2022 assuming there is a D-President. Given how Obama overreached from 2008-2010 with the Stimulus, O-Care I can definitly see that again especially if some ultra-liberal like Warren, Harris, Gillibrand occupies the WH.