NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[2016]

Emerson showed a house effect of D+1.2 which was below average and also had the second-best plus/minus rating (-1.0) per 538 from 2016 forward.

They aren't a terrible pollster TBH.

Obviously, MOE matters and this poll is not in line with the others at this point and it could also be an outlier, but it's not coming from a complete garbage pollster where it should be completely discounted.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

They’ll show odd results for both Ds and Rs. Just not a great pollster. Kinda like Gravis

Well, the last time Nevada ousted an Incumbent Senator Democrat or Republican was 1988 some 30 years ago when Republican Chic Hecht lost to Democrat Richard Bryan.

NV doesn't have a good History ousting Incumbent Senators.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Nevada

This Race is turning for now BUT of course Zaybay told us half a year ago Rosen has this one in the bag, LOL.

[2016]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

This is precisely the reason why I thought Heller could win again and why I would give the Democrats a better chance winning in AZ than in NV. Incumbency matters. NV has an Incumbent running, AZ has not. Heller is battle-tested.

[2016]

I think 2016 and Arkansas Yankee are getting way too ahead of themselves. Its very likely we'll get another poll with Rosen ahead so maybe chill out.

Maybe but the Trendlines are favouring Heller a bit now. 3 Polls in the last week and all 3 have Heller up:
Marist + 2
Siena + 2
Emerson + 7

Now, I don't think Heller is up 7 but I do think he has a slight edge here now. 2-4 Points is my guess.

[2016]

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature.  

On the coattails of a super popular Republican governor without a real opponent.

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

Yeah, that was because Shelley Berkley was involved in a scandal.

I'm certainly not on the "Heller's DOA" Atlas bandwagon, but let's be frank. Usually Dems are better positioned than Republicans in NV.

If it were an Open Seat you would be right but it isn't. As I already mentioned it's very hard to knock of an Incumbent Senator, Democrat or Republican alike in NV. It hasn't happened it 30 years. And I think it's a mistake moving NV permanently into the D-Column.