FL-GOV: Gillum + 1 (Mason-Dixon)

[2016]

Gillum 45
DeSantis 44
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/02/kavanaugh-effect-gillum-clings-to-1-point-lead-over-desantis-636720
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-36ec-d20d-a57f-b6fc49a10002

Party ID

D 38
R 37
I 25

Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker said typically more GOP Voters Vote in Midterms than D's.

That's suggesting to me that all the other Polls who had Gillum between 3-6 Points have been oversampling Democrats.

[2016]

The polls show this race tightening. As of now it's hard to say if it's just random noise, Gillum's post primary bounce deflating, the Kavanaugh stuff boosting the GOP, DeSantis's gaffes finally falling into the background, or some combination of the above. Time will tell I guess.

Anyway, I think Atlas overcorrected and went from underestimating Dem chances here to overestimating them, lol. Let's be honest with ourselves here. As bad as DeSantis is, the GOP is not going to just lay back and let a liberal black man become governor of Florida without a fight.

I think that is well put. Florida is too polerized and Gillum are implementing the same Strategy that Clinton did in 2016 by running up the margin in the big Democratic Counties while abandoning rual Voters. Gillum is going to get "killed" in the Exurbs around Tampa/St. Pete just like Trump did with Hillary.

Exit Poll 2006
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html

Party ID
R 40
D 36
I 24

2006 was a good year for D's yet the FL Exit Poll showed more Republicans voted than Democrats.

Exit Poll 2014
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/#exit-polls

Party ID
R 35
I 33
D 31

I call what Q-Pac and Marist are doing is absolutely hyperbolic by suggesting that the Florida Electorate in a MidTerm will be 4-5 Points more Democratic. That is just crap big time.

Unless the D's have fixed their Turnout Problem they had in 2010 & 2014 a lot of the Races will be a lot tighter and R's may actually win some.

[2016]

DeSantis also gave Gillum pretty much a free pass in the month of September with no Attack Ads, etc.

Gillum peaked to early.

[2016]

Gillum will win. Racist deplorable republikkkans will be outvoted by record African American turnout.

Lol blacks don't vote in midterms, even when someone like Perry Thurston is on the ballot. Ask Governor Crist.

I hope your surprised come next month. Democrats are working hard down here.

Just doing Turnout in Southeast FL won't help him win the State. He should ask Hillary Clinton. She got over 65% in Miami-Dade and still lost the State. Gillum is already abandoning Floridas Rural Voters and that will come back to haunt him.