Donnelly's decision probably isn't going to change any votes. Tilt D -> Tilt D.
Maybe not, but it’s all about base turnout.
You are right, MT, Joe has secured D turnout and has even won a couple R moderates over.
tossup -> Lean D (no tilts!)
Absolutely wrong. The Kavernaugh Vote at least what Republicans are concerned is all about the BASE. Republicans lacking intensity & enthusiasm all year long so the Senate is giving something to cheer for especially Trump Voters.
Kavernaugh getting through will IMO most likely safe the Senate for the GOP.