Washington state megathread

[Calthrina950]

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

[Calthrina950]

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

[Calthrina950]

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))

What do you mean? The reason why Lassen and Modoc voted so strongly for De Leon is because they were casting a protest vote against Feinstein, and had no other option but him on the ballot. He was the "non-incumbent" candidate, and in spite of his liberal views, was someone "other" than Feinstein. That was good enough for them.

[Calthrina950]

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

What's interesting is that she actually did worse than Murray in 2016 too. Specifically in Pierce County.
But the answer is absolutely polarization. She tanked in SW Washington and did decidedly poorly in Eastern Washington apart from Spokane/Whitman/Walla Walla.

Another thing. Turnout was 94.6% of 2016 senate race and 99.5% of 2012 senate race.

That is something. How she managed to do worse than Murray, in such a favorable environment, is beyond me.

[Calthrina950]

As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

Substitute "Democrat" in place of "Republican" - and you would get typical modern Republican argumentation. Equally flawed. When the only two big parties hate each other (and it's candidates) so much and so "tjhoroughly" - country is not in trouble, it's in a BIG trouble (almost on the brink of abyss). But - we shall see.

Agreed. I've expressed my strong disapproval of Trump and the Republican Party in recent months, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to go and kick out all Republican politicians from office. Viewing the opposing party as one's mortal enemy isn't the healthiest way to approach matters, and could very well poison one's personal relationships, if they are unable to make a distinction between the personal and the political.

[Calthrina950]

snip.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.

[Calthrina950]

snip.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.

As I said, yes, there are some, but the problem is drawing the equivalency between Democrats overall taking the pandemic seriously, while a handful of Republicans and a minority of Republican governors do. There isn't equivalency, and while there are exceptions to the rule, you have to look at the big picture. It's fine to praise Phil Scott, and I'll acknowledge that he's handled the pandemic well (though it's easier to slow the spread in a state like VT, which is quite sparsely populated) but you should do so knowing how unrepresentative he is of Republicans as a whole.

I think you're misconstruing what I was trying to say. I would agree that Democrats have generally taken this much more seriously than Republicans have, and I'm not going to argue otherwise, although I do believe several Democratic Governors (i.e. Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer), deserve criticism for their responses and have often gone overboard with the restrictions that they have imposed. What I'm getting at is that not all Democrats or all Republicans should be painted with the same brush, and the example that I just provided helps to provide further support for this claim. We have Republican Governors such as Scott, Hogan, Baker, and DeWine who have done well in responding to this, just like we have Democratic Governors, such as the ones I just named, who have run less than stellar responses.     

[Calthrina950]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.

[Calthrina950]

At 93% reporting according to the NYT, Biden has 60.2% in Washington, which makes him the first Democrat to hit that benchmark there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That is an impressive performance, indicating that he consolidated virtually all of the third-party vote from last time.

[Calthrina950]

Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

Sawant should primary cantwell

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

[Calthrina950]

Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

Sawant should primary cantwell

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

According to a "joint statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian communities" (of Seattle proper), which was previously posted here by GenMac, she has:

• regularly traded in rhetoric giving rise in anti-Semitism, resulting in violence directed at Jewish residents
• sought to hijack the efforts of BLM organizers to promote her own political agenda, which has been well-documented by local news coverage
• refused to advocate for East/Southeast Asian small business owners by falsely equating poverty with crime
• approrpriated her own South Asian identity for political gain without adequately representing her AAPI constituents
• admitted to using city resources to support a ballot initiative, without complying with a public disclosure requirement related to this support
• disobeyed a state order and endangered public workers by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th, 2020

Given all of this, why does Sawant continue to win reelection? Obviously, her constituents are satisfied with her service.