Why couldn't Bush win Long Island outright in 2004?

[Calthrina950]

I'd agree that the culture war (i.e. over the wars, gay marriage, abortion, and other issues) probably prevented Bush from winning Long Island outright in 2004. Nevertheless, he improved significantly on Long Island and in New York City itself over 2000, thanks to the 9/11 effect. Kerry won Suffolk County by less than a percentage point, whereas Gore had carried it by 11%. Nassau County went from a 20-pt. Gore victory to a 5.5 pt. margin for Kerry. Staten Island went from a 7-pt. Gore victory to a 13-pt. Bush victory.

Bush got 24% in Brooklyn (compared to 16% in 2000), 27% in Queens (compared to 22% in 2000), and 17% in the Bronx (compared to 12% in 2000). The only NYC borough to swing Democratic was Manhattan, which went for Kerry 82-17% after going for Gore 80-15%. Finally, Bush flipped Rockland County (winning by less than a percentage point while he had lost to Gore there by 17%) and slightly improved in Westchester County (which went from 59-38% Gore to 58-40% Kerry).