CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Calthrina950]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/18/politics/biden-california-democrats-midterms/index.html

"One of the big advantages Newsom had in this race is that Biden is quite popular in California. The current exit poll puts his approval rating at 58% to a disapproval rating of 39%. (The preelection Public Policy Institute of California poll similarly had the split at 58% to 38%."

My problem with this is the exit poll has Newsom winning 60-40 whereas the results are clearly going to be around 25-27% in the end. If Biden is +19 in the exit poll he might really be +25-27 if you weight the exit poll to the correct results.

Which would mean that despite national approval polls showing a dip, Biden is only off slightly from his 2020 margin.

Which makes me think that national polls are just as messy as they were in 2019-2020.

Are you implying that Biden is actually above water at this stage?

[Calthrina950]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.

Are you implying that the "Emerging Democratic Majority" is still going to be a reality?