Dewey-Stevenson voters

[Calthrina950]

Which parts of the country had the most Dewey 44 Stevenson 52 voters? The only place where I could really find a major swing was around Philadelphia.

I'm not sure about 1944, but for Dewey 1948-Stevenson 1952 voters, I've found Dawson County, Georgia. Dewey won Dawson County, north of Atlanta, 53-44-3% against Truman and Thurmond. Four years later, Stevenson carried it by a landslide 62-38% margin against Eisenhower. Dawson County was, according to Menendez's Atlas of Presidential Elections, the only county in the entire country to switch from Dewey in 1948 to Stevenson in 1952. I have no idea why this rural North Georgia county shifted so strongly between Dewey and Stevenson, in contrast to the strongly pro-Eisenhower shift in the rest of the country.

Interestingly enough, the Wikipedia article on Dawson County has a table that claims Thurmond won the county with 53%. That is incorrect, and I'm not sure where the discrepancy arose. Thurmond didn't do that well in North Georgia that year, a region with divided loyalties between New Deal populism and ancestral Mountain Republicanism. Thurmond's best counties in the state were along the border with his home state of South Carolina (the Augusta area) and in the arch-segregationist Black Belt.

[Calthrina950]

Which parts of the country had the most Dewey 44 Stevenson 52 voters? The only place where I could really find a major swing was around Philadelphia.

I'm not sure about 1944, but for Dewey 1948-Stevenson 1952 voters, I've found Dawson County, Georgia. Dewey won Dawson County, north of Atlanta, 53-44-3% against Truman and Thurmond. Four years later, Stevenson carried it by a landslide 62-38% margin against Eisenhower. Dawson County was, according to Menendez's Atlas of Presidential Elections, the only county in the entire country to switch from Dewey in 1948 to Stevenson in 1952. I have no idea why this rural North Georgia county shifted so strongly between Dewey and Stevenson, in contrast to the strongly pro-Eisenhower shift in the rest of the country.

Interestingly enough, the Wikipedia article on Dawson County has a table that claims Thurmond won the county with 53%. That is incorrect, and I'm not sure where the discrepancy arose. Thurmond didn't do that well in North Georgia that year, a region with divided loyalties between New Deal populism and ancestral Mountain Republicanism. Thurmond's best counties in the state were along the border with his home state of South Carolina (the Augusta area) and in the arch-segregationist Black Belt.

I'm honestly kind of shocked how only one county nationwide flipped

From Dewey to Stevenson, that is. Eisenhower flipped hundreds of counties that Truman had won, though I'm not sure exactly how many. He gained a higher share than Dewey had in every state in the Union, including in Georgia (where he got 30.34% as compared to Dewey's 18.31%). Eisenhower won two of Thurmond's counties (Richmond and Effingham) and also flipped Chatham County (Savannah), which Truman had won with a plurality. Stevenson won the remainder of Thurmond's counties and picked up the bulk of his support in the Black Belt, in addition to winning over a few Dewey voters like the ones in Dawson County.

In a way, 1952 was similar to 2000; in the latter year, Al Gore gained only two Bob Dole counties (Orange County, Florida and Charles County, Maryland), while at least 800 Bill Clinton counties went to George W. Bush.

[Calthrina950]

Which parts of the country had the most Dewey 48 Stevenson 52 voters? The only place where I could really find a major swing was around Philadelphia.

I think those counties swung because of Philly suburbanization (since Philadelphia had more Democrats than Republicans, the new voters in Bucks Co. or something were more Democrats than Republicans) and not necessarily because of Dewey-Stevenson voters.

Stevenson did win Philadelphia by a significantly larger margin than Truman had in 1948. Truman only won Philadelphia by about 7,000 votes (or less than 1%) that year-it was the last time that Philadelphia was even remotely competitive. Truman's weakness in Philadelphia, and Dewey's dominance of the Collar Counties, is why Dewey was able to win the state by a comfortable 4% margin that year. Four years later, Stevenson won Philadelphia by 160,000 votes and 17%, although Eisenhower won Pennsylvania by more than Dewey (holding Dewey's support in the Collar Counties and improving upon him in the remainder of the state).

There were probably a good number of Dewey-Stevenson voters, given that Philadelphia's Republican machine finally collapsed in the early 1950s, and black voters were continuing their realignment between the parties. But you're also correct that turnout played a role, as Philadelphia cast about 63,000 more votes in 1952 than 1948. So the Dewey-Stevenson swing in Philadelphia was a combination of two factors, turnout and the long-term Democratic trend.