KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Calthrina950]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

[Calthrina950]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

[Calthrina950]

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

Menifee is only Bevin +7 with pretty much all precincts reporting. Bevin won it by 12 in 2015, so this is an underperformance if anything.

Then what I read was inaccurate. I was reading that Bevin won it by less than that in 2015. Guess it goes to show you the inaccuracies that can easily crop up. But we'll have to see what happens when Jefferson County dumps its votes. And Beshear is leading in Kenton and Campbell, the two traditionally Republican suburban counties near Cincinnati that will be essential for him to win.

[Calthrina950]

Given that Beshear is winning Elliott handily and is carrying a number of other Eastern Kentucky rural counties, Rowan County should vote for him as well. Haven't seen any results from it yet though.

[Calthrina950]

Cameron is winning in a blowout in KYAG. That’s not something people were predicting.

It appears that Stumbo's character assassination attacks against him backfired badly.

[Calthrina950]

I'm glad to see that I was wrong about this race. Beshear's victory (if he pulls it out, which at this point I'm starting to think he will), definitely bodes well for John Bel Edwards down in Louisiana.

[Calthrina950]

One potentially interesting result to wait on in eastern Kentucky: Rowan County is the only eastern Kentucky county not reporting anything yet. It was by far Clinton's best county in eastern Kentucky in 2016; she held on to 37% of the vote there. But it's not typically especially Democratic, voting for Conway only narrowly over Bevin, 49-46, in 2015.

Edit: It's also the home of the infamous Kim Davis.

I asked about this before, and given what we are seeing now, Beshear will definitely win Rowan.

[Calthrina950]

Well, that settles KY for Beshear even before any MS votes have come in, who would have predicted that? I also thought that Bevin was slightly favored (Tossup/Tilt R), but I’m almost grateful that the unbelievably smug and insufferable Safe R posters have been proven wrong. This is why you don’t make overconfident predictions, especially when you’ve been consistently wrong before (AL-SEN 2017, WV-GOV 2016, etc.).

You're right. I am happy to see that I was wrong, and given that Manchin did indeed hold on in West Virginia last year, I shouldn't have discounted Beshear's chances. However, I was doing so out of pessimism, and not out of a desire for Bevin to win, as I've already made clear.

At any rate, this is very good to see!

[Calthrina950]

NBC calls it for Beshear.

Talk about skin of your teeth.

Even closer than his 2015 race, if I am not mistaken. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if some try to undermine the joy over Beshear's victory by emphasizing this. The fact that he managed to win at all, when most people didn't think he had a chance, and in a state that voted for Trump by 30%, is astounding.

[Calthrina950]

Did Beshear underperform in Kenton and Campbell or are those narrow victories good results for him?

Given that these counties are historically Republican, I would say that his victories were good for him, and are helping to contribute to his lead over Bevin.

KY Senate 2020 is now likely R

No. McConnell is still Safe, though I wouldn't be surprised if he won by roughly the same margin that Rand Paul did in 2016 (~14% or so).

[Calthrina950]

NBC calls it for Beshear.

Talk about skin of your teeth.

Even closer than his 2015 race, if I am not mistaken. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if some try to undermine the joy over Beshear's victory by emphasizing this. The fact that he managed to win at all, when most people didn't think he had a chance, and in a state that voted for Trump by 30%, is astounding.

The defense I'm hearing is "Kentucky always elects Democrat governors, relax!"

If this were true, Bevin wouldn't even be in office, and neither would have Ernie Fletcher. But I can get it. Though Kentucky will go in a landslide for Trump last year, this race does tell me that polarization hasn't completely doomed the Democrats here. Elliott County in particular, voted for every statewide Democrat tonight, even for Conway and Bowman, who both lost by more than 20 percentage points (according to NYT). It looks like Elliott will remain Democratic at the downballot level for the foreseeable future, though Trump will win it easily next year.

[Calthrina950]

So much for that impeachment backlash.

And so much for that Trump rally.

[Calthrina950]

Republicans have lost these elections. Even if the GOP wins MS and LA, it's over. This is going to hurt President's Trump's re-election, makes me very sad

I don't think so. Bevin was unpopular.

Wasn't the attorney general's race close as well, even though the Republican squeaked it out?

Not even close. Cameron won in a landslide, and beat Stumbo by 14%, 57-43%, according to NYT.

[Calthrina950]

Hood is pretty much done.

Given that he seems to be underperforming Espy, is it possible that Hood might lose by low double digits?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/1191904298982166528

But GOP picked up the AG and SoS spots and Bevin is the most unpopular governor in the country so is it really THAT much of a win?

These are valid points. French-Henry was the only other statewide Democrat besides Beshear to come within single digits. Greg Stumbo got blown out, and so did every other row office Democrat. Kentucky is of course Safe R for both the presidential and senatorial races next year. Regardless, Beshear's victory should still be considered an impressive feat, particularly since he was thought by most to be the underdog, and since this is Kentucky.

[Calthrina950]

CNN and the NYTimes are still refusing to call the race. Cuomo keeps parroting that CNN has 'their own standards' which is bizarre given that the 100% of results are in.

They obviously expected Beshear to lose, and so did most other mainstream media outlets. It reminds me of how in 2016, the networks waited until Trump was already giving his victory speech to declare him as the winner of the election.

[Calthrina950]

CNN and the NYTimes are still refusing to call the race. Cuomo keeps parroting that CNN has 'their own standards' which is bizarre given that the 100% of results are in.

They obviously expected Beshear to lose, and so did most other mainstream media outlets. It reminds of how in 2016, the networks waited until Trump was already giving his victory speech to declare him as the winner of the election.

MSNBC called it however.

You're right, but I said most other mainstream media outlets. DDHQ has also called the race in Beshear's favor, as has Vox.

[Calthrina950]

Assuming Jim Hood loses the governor's race, does anyone see him running for another statewide office?  Or have Republicans just slain their last white southern Democratic dragon in the state who could still mount a competitive campaign?  

This. Hood's defeat (and the flip of the AG position) completes the Republican takeover of Mississippi that began in 1964, with Goldwater, and is only now reaching fruition.

[Calthrina950]

"Bevin....never heard of the guy"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1191922351346200576

Somebody needs to show him this:

Not surprised that the Trumps are already distancing themselves from Bevin. They do not like losers. They will do the same to Rispone if he loses to Edwards in a few weeks.

[Calthrina950]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

[Calthrina950]

Is the area radiating outwards from Pulaski County ancestrally Republican in the same way as/for the same reasons as neighboring East Tennessee?

Yes. Leslie and Owsley Counties, for example, were among the most Unionist counties in Kentucky during the Civil War, to my understanding. But it is notable to note that Bevin lost that region of the state in the Republican primary-which in hindsight, should have been taken as an indicator of his general-election weaknesses.

[Calthrina950]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

Yeah, this isn’t really comparable to what we saw in LA. Bevin probably wishes that this was 2016 trends on steroids, but it certainly wasn’t the case in rural KY.

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

[Calthrina950]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

Yeah I do think Kentucky rurals are a bit more enlightened (or at least more supportive of good government) than Deep South rural whites. But on the other hand, Louisiana is historically pretty atypical downballot...like up until a few weeks ago I think the Dems held some 80%+ Trump House seats, so in that sense it's also closer to Kentucky than Mississippi. And the fundamentals of that race seem closer to Kentucky (although o/c the difference there is a popular governor from the opposing party rather than an unpopular governor from the dominant party) than Mississippi (where the Dems admittedly had a strong candidate, but didn't have any incumbency factors to help him and the Republican candidate was at least OK - is it worth noting that the thing that doomed Hood was suburbanites not swinging enough to counteract his inevitable rural losses?).

In Mississippi, the Democrats also held a number of rural, majority white seats. And most of those flipped tonight. I believe there are now only two white Democrats left in Mississippi's legislature. But in general, you are correct, both about why Hood lost and about the dynamics of the upcoming election in Louisiana. Edwards, like Beshear, will need the votes of traditionally Republican suburbanites around New Orleans and Baton Rouge to hold on.