ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Calthrina950]

Great ad from the Gideon campaign:

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1304048692727631879

Has Susan Collins had anything to say about Trump's admission? Or has she said that she is "deeply concerned", maybe even "very troubled" over them? Collins' comments about Trump "learning his lesson" have truly come back to bite her in the behind.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/LisaForMaine/status/1303069215281295361?s=19

This is a few days old, but the thread didn't catch it. Important when it comes to RCV to ensure your voters don't leave potential second or third choices blank, since since you can still get some of what you want. In SF local politics some RCV candidates campaign with other candidates they endorse, with a message of "make us your 1 and 2, we don't care about the order."

A pretty good move on Savage's part. Obviously, she knows that she won't win, and thus is trying to make sure that her voters support Gideon where it truly counts. According to the latest poll from Maine, Gideon is leading Collins 45-44%, with Savage garnering 6%. If all of Savage's voters go to Gideon, that would give her a 51% majority, which would obviously be enough. I highly doubt that Collins will be able to garner the majority of that vote.

[Calthrina950]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

Good point. I doubt the voters of Maine are as dumb as the WV's that still voted for Diamond Joe.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Manchin did vote for Kavanaugh (he did decide right after Collins did, so probably wouldn't have been the deciding vote for him).

He's probably referring to how Manchin and Collins have both been reliable votes for their Parties when their votes are absolutely necessary and are on a critical issue. You alluded to this when describing how Manchin decided to vote for Kavanaugh only after Collins did so, realizing that he could safely cast an affirmative vote without it making a difference either way. If it had come down to him, he would have joined Tester, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly in voting in the negative. And Collins, as we saw with the votes on impeachment and witnesses, took stances that would similarly be of aid to her Party-voting in the affirmative on witnesses only because she knew that witnesses would not be approved.

[Calthrina950]

Susan does not seem to be aware that Biden is in position to win Maine by 15 points

It is not 2008 anymore, when Obama won the state against McCain by 18%. The country was not as heavily polarized as it is now, and Collins was much more popular back then, enjoying her reputation of being a moderate and sensible Republican Senator. That reputation-as has been said repeatedly-has been completely destroyed during the Trump Presidency. That Collins cannot bring herself to directly condemn Trump for his debate performance is disgraceful, but not surprising, given the circumstances that she's in. It's hard for me to see what could save her at this point, as it's clear that she, more than any other Senator in a competitive race this year, has been hurt by the ongoing battle over Ginsburg's seat.

[Calthrina950]

It's surreal to see Collins go down this path. I can't imagine such an embarrassing outburst would be appealing to the people she has to convince that she's a reasonable moderate.

This is an articulate and more professional version of a Trump Twitter meltdown.

What outburst are you referring to?

[Calthrina950]

It's surreal to see Collins go down this path. I can't imagine such an embarrassing outburst would be appealing to the people she has to convince that she's a reasonable moderate.

This is an articulate and more professional version of a Trump Twitter meltdown.

What outburst are you referring to?

The one referenced in the article shared by Landslide Lyndon. She claims Gideon is out to destroy her image and she says that she's more entitled to the position of Senator because her family has been in Maine for generations.

I've read it, and it's definitely a poor interview. Collins, interestingly enough, boasted that despite all of the "dark money" spent against her, she will still win. But privately, she must know that she is in serious trouble, and that she's the underdog at this point. Perhaps that explains why she's becoming so vindictive with her attacks. She hasn't had a competitive race in decades, and it shows.

[Calthrina950]

This article is from February, but it's still a revealing expose into Susan Collins' character and background: https://nymag.com/article/2020/02/the-immoderate-susan-collins.html. I almost felt some sympathy for Collins as I read through the first half of the article, but that dissipated quickly. It's clear from this that she's always been a spiteful, duplicitous, and thin-skinned woman who has been far less "independent" then she has claimed to be, and has done nothing to seriously depart from her Party's agenda, particularly in recent years.

And she seems to harbor some prejudices, given that she's now fallen so low as to condemn George Soros-who is a boogeyman of the far right and conspiracy theorists-for spending money against her. Given all of this, and given that Collins had initially pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate (a pledge which she broke over a decade ago), I think it's even clearer that she needs to be shown the door.

[Calthrina950]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

It will depend on whether Trump wins ME-02 and on Lisa Savage's performance. In effect she still has time to take progressive votes from Gideon. Savage supports Medicare for All, Gideon doesn't. If Savage can do so well, she can hand victory to Collins.

She can't because of RCV.

And Savage has already made clear that she supports Gideon for the second round. And like I've said, I highly doubt that Savage's voters are amendable to voting for Collins. Collins will probably pick up Max Linn's support, since he's closer ideologically to her and isn't the sanest candidate, to put it mildly. That won't be anywhere near enough for her, however, as Linn is polling behind Savage.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317081982166323200

4D chess move to keep the Senate.

I'm still laughing at how Collins embarrassed herself earlier this year by claiming that Trump had "learned his lesson" from impeachment. Trump-as he's also demonstrated in the aftermath of his coronavirus diagnosis-is incapable of learning from anything, and is very stubborn. He's also made his contempt for Collins clear many times in the past, and views her (correctly, though for different reasons obviously) as a useful stooge and as weak.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1320511255757639680

Didn't Susan Collins vote nay though?

On Barrett's nomination to the Supreme Court, yes. But it was clearly a political move. Had she been the critical vote for this, like she was for Kavanaugh's confirmation, she would have voted in the affirmative. McConnell knew that her vote was not needed this time, and this is meant as a last ploy to save her Senate seat.

[Calthrina950]

Senator Morrisey agrees that people are smarter than this.

(And ftr, I don’t think that this will be the reason if she wins reelection.)

And Manchin joined every other Democrat in voting against Barrett. Ironically enough, that means he has now voted the same way as Collins on all three of Trump's Supreme Court appointees. And Barrett has become the first Supreme Court Justice nominated during her nearly 24 years in the Senate that Collins has voted against.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321652221239611393
Maine, please vote Susan Collins out!

I second this. As a black person, I'm fully aware of how many whites have downplayed, and continue to downplay, institutional racism within this country. It doesn't surprise me that Susan Collins, an elderly white woman who lives in a state that is well over 90% white, would be so ignorant on such issues. Fortunately, it looks like Maine is going to give her a pink slip in less than a week, after a quarter of a century.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

LMAO what world have you been living in?

In 2008, Collins was initially seen as vulnerable, and she faced a credible opponent that year-then Rep. Tom Allen from Maine's 1st congressional district. Collins, however, ended up defeating Allen by 23%, even while Obama was carrying Maine by 18% against John McCain at the same time. Nevertheless, as I myself have said, this is not 2008 anymore. The country is much more polarized, and Collins is far less popular than she was 12 years ago.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

LMAO what world have you been living in?

In 2008, Collins was initially seen as vulnerable, and she faced a credible opponent that year-then Rep. Tom Allen from Maine's 1st congressional district. Collins, however, ended up defeating Allen by 23%, even while Obama was carrying Maine by 18% against John McCain at the same time. Nevertheless, as I myself have said, this is not 2008 anymore. The country is much more polarized, and Collins is far less popular than she was 12 years ago.

Polls consistently showed Collins far ahead in 2008 (albeit not quite as far ahead as she ended up winning by) and at that point, she had only won re-election once, in a Republican year, so she didn't seem quite as invincible then as she did later.

I see. I remember seeing an article somewhere, in which it was said that her race was initially viewed as competitive that year. But yes, you're right. Collins "only" beat Chellie Pingree 58-42% in 2002, and that was the 9/11 midterm year. So it makes sense that she wouldn't have been viewed as an electoral titan, like she came to be following 2014. And 2014, obviously, was also a Republican wave year-which may help to explain why Collins garnered her largest-ever majority in that election (beating Shenna Bellows 68-31%).

[Calthrina950]

Yeah. So she’s going to survive.

(Not counting Mitch)

I want to see her and Lindsey go more than anything.

It disgusts me she’s going to survive, she’s clearly charging hard and I’m afraid will cross the fi ish line unfortunately

Fundamentals Favoring Collins:

-Collins is the incumbent

Fundamentals working against Collins:

-The national environment
-Partisanship
-Fundraising
-Polling
-Biden’s very likely to carry Maine, and by a bigger margin than Clinton
-Incumbents tend to underperform polls
-She’s on of the most disliked senators nationally

She’s always considered vulnerable and always ends up with cross party ticket splitting appeal

LMAO what world have you been living in?

In 2008, Collins was initially seen as vulnerable, and she faced a credible opponent that year-then Rep. Tom Allen from Maine's 1st congressional district. Collins, however, ended up defeating Allen by 23%, even while Obama was carrying Maine by 18% against John McCain at the same time. Nevertheless, as I myself have said, this is not 2008 anymore. The country is much more polarized, and Collins is far less popular than she was 12 years ago.

Collins was always considered safe in 2008 despite facing a credible opponent.  The race was never really a priority for either party that cycle.

I see. As I noted above, I recall reading an article somewhere which stated the opposite, but I'll defer to the judgment of posters on here regarding this.

[Calthrina950]

B-b-but she didn’t lead in a single poll!

It's obvious that there still was some significant ticket-splitting in this election, but it appears to have mainly benefited Republicans. Collins, Cornyn, Perdue, and Tillis, for example, all ran ahead of Trump, and Phil Scott did better than Joe Biden in Vermont!