GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Calthrina950]

If Abrams runs again in 2020, she will lose again. And then she will talk about having another "do-over".....

[Calthrina950]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

[Calthrina950]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

Or maybe people realize the election was rigged and these mythical white suburban voters angry about her lack of a concession are really actually angry about destroyed voter rolls?

A rigged election.......Of course.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminAmis/status/1160972594813816833

“Ga iS lIkeLy R!”

“AbRaMs cOuLdNt wIn iN a D+9 yEaR!”

GA GOP is also launching a voter registration effort for 2020. They have NEVER attempted to expand the electorate. Just rile up high propensity Dixiecrats in rural GA. They are running out of voters to entice with racist dogwhistles.

So just to be clear when Dems launch voter registration drives they are ‘gearing up’ or ‘running a smart campaign’ but when Rs do it they are in disarray and running scared?

Obviously GA is trending D but it is silly to think that the GOP launching a voter registration drive in a Lean R state indicates good news for Democrats. It means the GOP is taking the race seriously, which is a bad thing if you’re a Dem. it is hardly a death knell obviously but the double standard on how political campaigning is conducted and advertised on this forum is kind of silly.

You're talking to a guy who thinks Stace Abrams is the rightful governor of Georgia, he doesn't have a very strong grip on reality

He's discounting also the fact that none of the Democratic candidates running thus far seem to be particularly impressive, and that 2020 will not be as strongly a Democratic-leaning year as 2018 was. Georgia is indeed continuing to trend Democratic, but it will take a few more election cycles for these trends to reach full fruition.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminAmis/status/1160972594813816833

“Ga iS lIkeLy R!”

“AbRaMs cOuLdNt wIn iN a D+9 yEaR!”

GA GOP is also launching a voter registration effort for 2020. They have NEVER attempted to expand the electorate. Just rile up high propensity Dixiecrats in rural GA. They are running out of voters to entice with racist dogwhistles.

So just to be clear when Dems launch voter registration drives they are ‘gearing up’ or ‘running a smart campaign’ but when Rs do it they are in disarray and running scared?

Obviously GA is trending D but it is silly to think that the GOP launching a voter registration drive in a Lean R state indicates good news for Democrats. It means the GOP is taking the race seriously, which is a bad thing if you’re a Dem. it is hardly a death knell obviously but the double standard on how political campaigning is conducted and advertised on this forum is kind of silly.

You're talking to a guy who thinks Stace Abrams is the rightful governor of Georgia, he doesn't have a very strong grip on reality

Be careful, for some D posters on this forum contesting the fact that Stacey Abrams is the rightful governor of GA makes you a white supremacist

Now, I would admit that Abrams probably would be the best Democratic candidate for this seat, as she would energize minority turnout, like she did in 2018, and run a vigorous campaign. However, she couldn't seal the deal in the Democratic-friendly year of 2018, and in 2020, Republican turnout will be higher, as Trump will be on the ballot. The Atlanta area does not yet possess the margins or the votes to cancel out the edge Republicans derive from the state's small towns and rural areas. That might be different by 2022 or 2024, but 2020 is too soon.

[Calthrina950]

Jason Carter seems to be interested, or at least not ruling it out.

I could see Jason Carter doing it. He was pretty competitive in '14 against Kemp.

You mean Deal?

[Calthrina950]

The state has an embarrassment of riches in the Democratic talent pool but I'm voting for Tomlinson. I like Terry but he's just too young imo, Perdue plays nasty.

Tomlinson has a spine of steel and will dismantle Perdue. Terry has a lot of policy deficits. He was asked several things at a town hall and didn’t have an answer. I’ve never seen Tomlinson so much as flinch. She’s been preparing for this since before Abrams had the performance she had in 2018 unlike Terry and Amico. I trust her.

Agreed. Terry has all the time in the world to work on getting where he needs to go. There’s no young, talented Rs in the state anymore either since the two state reps lost last year which helps him even more. There’s a time for and a place for everyone and this just isn’t his time.

I'm not sure if Georgia is ready for such a staunch progressive like Terry. Too radical for his state, at least at the present time.

[Calthrina950]

Ideally McBath runs for the open seat and a POC is the nominee against Perdue then Dems could really juice turnout. I just feel like Dems are gonna give up on beating Perdue and just go for the open seat which is a lot easier.

If Perdue wins reelection, Democrats will not win the open seat. I just cannot envision that many Perdue-McBath (?) voters.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1281259887012577283

Both sides finally agree this is a tossup race, I see. This county map is going to be almost as insane as ME GOV 2002!

It would be interesting if someone on here decided to produce a prediction of what Georgia's "joke map" would look like, with the alleged Perdue strength in the suburbs and the Ossoff strength in the rurals. I imagine that it would look similar to the 1980 Senate map between Mack Mattingly and Herman Talmadge:

I've enjoyed the memes which have been made about such a scenario on this forum.

[Calthrina950]

In first debate, Ossoff and Perdue each try to paint rival as yes man or 'rubber stamp’.

Throughout the hourlong Atlanta Press Club debate, Perdue depicted Ossoff as a liberal stalking horse who would say “anything to hide his radical socialist agenda.” The Democrat swung back, trying to frame Perdue as a relic of a corrupt status quo and a yes man to President Donald Trump.

Rather than play the showdown safe, Perdue took on the role of a fiery underdog, peppering his challenger with attacks while repeatedly challenging moderator Donna Lowry on the debate’s rules to gain more speaking time.

“All you’d do is be a rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer, who is locking this country down,” Perdue said in one testy exchange, invoking the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate. “It just seems to me that you’ll say anything to hide your radical socialist agenda.”

The sharpest clash took place when Perdue dismissed Ossoff’s critiques of his pandemic response as little more than “Monday morning quarterbacking” and “idle chatter.”

“Senator, I’m astounded. It’s not idle chatter, senator. It’s 220,000 Americans killed by a virus,” said Ossoff, who runs a firm that makes investigative documentaries, adding: “And listen to you — schoolyard insults. Not a shred of empathy. Not a shred of personal responsibility.”

Throughout the debate, Perdue declared that Ossoff supports the “defund the police” movement — an assertion that Ossoff has long denied — suggested he was in league with terrorists and falsely claimed the Democrat was endorsed by Communists.

And Ossoff accused Perdue of abusing his power and putting his loyalty to Trump ahead of Georgia, while also mocking his debate skills. Twice, he accused the senator of “reading from your notes that your staff has provided for you.”

Both tried to use Libertarian Shane Hazel, a third-party candidate who is trailing badly in the polls, as a foil to make their points about their rivals. The military veteran joked that the hourlong debate garnered him more attention than his entire campaign, and he called himself a model of “principled consistency.”

“You’re not going to get it through these types of politicians,” said Hazel, a former GOP congressional candidate.

No matter the question, whether it involved school waivers or Barrett’s appointment, Perdue pivoted to call Ossoff as a “radical socialist agenda” — a variation of a charge Perdue used at least a half-dozen times. Ossoff, meanwhile, raced to paint his opponent as hopelessly disconnected from the “real world where people are suffering."

Perdue seems to have gone all in on a strategy of mobilizing rural white voters and Trumpists-a strategy that isn't going to help him with college-educated suburbanites and independents who have become increasingly wary of Republicans. Given what happened in 2018 between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams, this strategy could work, but it's a very risky one.

[Calthrina950]

I watched the debate clip on YouTube, and Ossoff certainly has learned from his unsuccessful 2017 congressional bid. He demolished Perdue, who was unable to rebut any of his attacks. If Perdue loses outright next week, that might compensate for a Democratic failure in Maine, Iowa, and/or Montana.

[Calthrina950]

I'm watching this debate. If you take a shot every time Perdue says "radical socialist agenda" well RIP to your liver.

Republicans everywhere are using the words "radical" and "socialist", in some shape or form, this year. For example, Lauren Boebert, here in CO-03, has used the word "socialist" repeatedly in her ads. Republicans don't seem to understand that while this may gin up their supporters, it does not help them with swing voters, suburbanites, or independents. It's as if they're abandoning any pretense of moderation.

[Calthrina950]

I'm watching this debate. If you take a shot every time Perdue says "radical socialist agenda" well RIP to your liver.

Republicans everywhere are using the words "radical" and "socialist", in some shape or form, this year. For example, Lauren Boebert, here in CO-03, has used the word "socialist" repeatedly in her ads. Republicans don't seem to understand that while this may gin up their supporters, it does not help them with swing voters, suburbanites, or independents. It's as if they're abandoning any pretense of moderation.

The irony of the "socialist" drum they've been beating for years and years is that it has lost its effect in a way that even people who call themselves "socialists" or "social democrats" or
"democratic socialists" (not to equate the terms) could probably get away without being seriously hurt by them. After all, if they're going to call Joe Biden a socialist, basically anyone could be considered a socialist.

I certainly agree. Republicans have overused the "socialist" label, and it now falls flat with many voters. Younger voters, in particular, who have no memory of the Soviet Union or the Cold War, aren't swayed by it, and many have embraced the ideology of "democratic socialism." Just look at the support that people such as Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez have garnered among Millennials and Zoomers.

[Calthrina950]

Agree the GA Dem candidates have been pretty impressive this year. On top of that, Perdue (and Loeffler) have also run terrible campaigns where the central platform was hugging Trump as closely as they could. Makes no sense given that both Perdue and Loeffler were supposed to be candidates that could attract suburbanities who weren't in love with Trump.

I'm more than happy to eat sh**t after thinking both Ossoff & Warnock were weak choices.

The lesson of this cycle has been that you're almost better as as non-office holder; our best choices have never held elected office (Kelly, Harrison, Ossoff, Warnock)

It astonishes me the extent to which Republican candidates of virtually all stripes have either tied themselves to Trump, or have been unable to disengage themselves from him. You see it, for example, in Susan Collins' refusal to explicitly disavow Trump and to reveal how she is voting in the upcoming election. But you see it also with the appeals by various Republican politicians, using the same language and the same kinds of attacks as employed by Trump. This is why I don't think his influence is going to disappear from the Party if he loses reelection.

[Calthrina950]

Agree the GA Dem candidates have been pretty impressive this year. On top of that, Perdue (and Loeffler) have also run terrible campaigns where the central platform was hugging Trump as closely as they could. Makes no sense given that both Perdue and Loeffler were supposed to be candidates that could attract suburbanities who weren't in love with Trump.

I'm more than happy to eat sh**t after thinking both Ossoff & Warnock were weak choices.

The lesson of this cycle has been that you're almost better as as non-office holder; our best choices have never held elected office (Kelly, Harrison, Ossoff, Warnock)

It astonishes me the extent to which Republican candidates of virtually all stripes have either tied themselves to Trump, or have been unable to disengage themselves from him. You see it, for example, in Susan Collins' refusal to explicitly disavow Trump and to reveal how she is voting in the upcoming election. But you see it also with the appeals by various Republican politicians, using the same language and the same kinds of attacks as employed by Trump. This is why I don't think his influence is going to disappear from the Party if he loses reelection.

John James is the only R nominee in a semi-competitive state that has been able to do it bc he’s not actually in the senate

That's correct, and it's part of why James will probably run ahead of Trump next week. I expect him to get the support of some suburbanite voters who will be backing Biden.