AMA - IceSpear

[Calthrina950]

What are your thoughts about the midterm results in the Senate? What do you think about the underperformance of virtually every Senate nominee on the ballot this year, with a few notable exceptions? How severe will the urban/rural divide become?

[Calthrina950]

Which states do you think are trending towards the Republicans? Are Democrats done for in Appalachia and the Interior West? And what do the results in Colorado say about Cory Gardner's chances at winning reelection in 2020?

[Calthrina950]

Which states do you think are trending towards the Republicans? Are Democrats done for in Appalachia and the Interior West? And what do the results in Colorado say about Cory Gardner's chances at winning reelection in 2020?

Democrats are definitely screwed in Appalachia. Every year we hear how an amazing Democratic candidate will make headway there (Mark Warner, Jack Conway, Ted Strickland, Richard Ojeda) only for them to get BTFO. They even turned against Good Ol Boy Joe Manchin in favor of a fatass toxic carpetbagger because he had an (R) next to his name and the God Emperor told them to! He had to make up for the losses there in the "urban" areas of the state, lol.

I think Gardner is screwed unless 2020 is a Republican wave and/or he gets a godawful scandal ridden opponent.

Do you think Minnesota is on it's way to becoming a swing state? And which state best represented the urban/suburban/rural trends of this election cycle?

[Calthrina950]

Which city's ruby-red suburban counties are you most excited to see turn blue?

I assume I can't pick ones that have already turned blue, right? And I'm assuming you mean in presidential elections. In that case...

Maricopa County, AZ
Hamilton County, IN
Dallas County, IA
Johnson County, KS
Kent County, MI
Delaware County, OH
Williamson County, TX
Tarrant County, TX
Chesterfield County, VA
Virginia Beach County, VA

I am surprised you didnt choose Orange County AKA Reagan Country as one of your picks. I mean the symbolism of the County that kickstarted the Reagan Revolution and the modern conservative movement going Blue in 2018 is just stunning

Orange County already went D in 2016. I thought I was picking ones that haven't gone D yet.

Most of the counties on this list did go Democratic, in either congressional, Senatorial, or other statewide races, this year.

[Calthrina950]

Do you think John Bel Edwards will lose reelection in Louisiana next year? And by how much do you expect Democrats to take the Virginia legislature?

[Calthrina950]

What do you think a presidential electoral map will look like fifty years from now, if the current trends were to continue indefinitely? That of course, is implausible, but I'm still curious.

[Calthrina950]

Will Shelley Moore-Capito get over 70% of the vote in West Virginia in 2020? Will Trump do so in the presidential election? Given the results there this year, with Manchin only narrowly surviving, and given that West Virginia is continuing to get more Republican, I could definitely see it happening.

[Calthrina950]

Do you think Trump will win more or fewer counties in 2020 than in 2016? Does he have a good shot at picking up counties like Mahoning County, Ohio, and Deer Lodge County, Montana?

[Calthrina950]

Icespear, I'm reposting this from a few months ago. These were questions from your "accolades" thread that you never responded to, and that I was still curious about:

I tried to tell you all. I really did. This is looking like a landslide, folks.

If you are referring to Nevada, you were absolutely correct. You were off in West Virginia, but Manchin failing to garner an absolute majority there and winning a minority of counties clearly indicates that the state is gone for Democrats in 2024, when he retires. You were also right about Tennessee and North Dakota.

Don't forget Oklahoma, WI-01, and FL-27! Where's Politician?

Honestly, I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or Morrisey plurality...so close.

That is true. But were you shocked by Braun and Hawley receiving absolute majorities in their states? They far outperformed their poll numbers. And both Bredesen and Heitkamp lost by ~ 10-11 points.

Missouri didn't shock me, I thought it was plausible Hawley could win by a modest margin. I chose to believe "high quality" Marist rather than going with my gut. That'll never happen again, lol. Donnelly losing by double digits was definitely surprising.

Democrats underperformed in so many of these races. Murphy and Cantwell failing to break 60%, Carper losing a county in Delaware, Stabenow being held to single digits, Donnelly losing by double digits, Gilibrand and Klobuchar losing many rural counties they carried last time, Brown winning by only six points, the same margin as in 2012, Manchin getting only a plurality, etc. Republicans underperformed too, as Romney is doing about 9% worse than he did in 2012, and lost Summit County to Jenny Wilson. Barrasso failed to break 70%. In fact, it looks like Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, of all people, might be the only Senatorial victor on either side of the spectrum to break 70%; even Bernie Sanders fell short.

There were some exceptions of course (Cardin got 64%, far higher than the 56% he received in 2012, O'Rourke came within 4 points of victory in Texas, Casey and Kaine both won by double digits and did better than in 2012). But overall, this election confirms that polarization is now the defining standard. What do you think about the fact that only Hirono will get over 70%? Or about polarization in general?

The questions are in bold.