Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Calthrina950]

lol:

This is an interesting, and telling, depiction. It is true that the Democratic freshmen are much more diverse, racially and in terms of gender, than their Republican counterparts. The Democrats are far more representative of this nation's racial complexion, I do agree with that.

[Calthrina950]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

It looks like Love will probably hold on.

[Calthrina950]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

What is your problem with Crenshaw?

[Calthrina950]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Except that most of those 7 governor's offices were just places where the GOP overextended in solid blue turf anyway

The only flipped state of true consequence to be a wave was Kansas. The only traditional swingers to flip were Wisconsin and Nevada [the latter which is increasingly becoming a reverse Missouri], both of which should've been doable anyway. And in the end, Florida was still lost by less than a point. Ohio...too bad, Iowa...hahaha nope.

It was a wave in The House, but everything else? Not a chance. The Senate was reasonable damage control, and

yeah poeple keeping SAYING +7 governor but the only real shine there was kansas. The others were just normal midterm flips that should have happened.
Dems failed in FL,Oh,GA, etc.

Exactly. The Democrats did not do as well this year as they did in 2006. They lost seats in the Senate, and their performance in gubernatorial and statewide elections was not as good as it was 12 years ago. It cannot be forgotten that Trump's base did turn out, thereby mitigating the extent of the losses which they might have otherwise suffered. And polarization, more then anything else, has become a significant factor.

[Calthrina950]

I think worth noting that CA Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lead over Kevin De Leon has been cut to 8.4%. Feinstein now leads by under 100K Votes.

CA will probably become more Progressive in the years to come. I'd say Feinstein although she already filed for Re-Election in 2024 is TOAST if she makes it that far.

De Leon's overperformance was one of this year's biggest surprises. And I definitely do believe that this will be Feinstein's last term.

[Calthrina950]

On Wednesday, the new July 1, 2018 Census Bureau population estimates and 18+ voting age estimates are out for the states.

This could create new benchmarks for the VEP and therefore turnout could change as well, meaning that the 1914 historical all-time-high could be broken ...

Based on my calculations, the downward revisions of the VAP and VEP by about 0.6 million led to a slight increase in turnout:

The VEP is now about 235.1 million and about 118.6 million ballots were cast.

The new turnout is 50.45% and therefore higher than the all-time-record from 1914 for a mid-term with 50.4%

Are there any states that have not certified their official results still?