Is Virginia now a Safe Democratic state?

[Calthrina950]

The question is as in the title. In 2017 and 2018, Republicans suffered severe losses in Virginia. In 2017, they almost lost control of the VA House of Delegates, as the Democrats gained a dozen seats. Ralph Northam defeated Ed Gillepsie by 9% in the gubernatorial race, a much wider margin than many had expected. Than, on Tuesday, Republicans did even worse. Barbara Comstock, Dave Brat, and Scott Taylor were all defeated, with Comstock losing to Jennifer Wexton by 14 percentage points. Moreover, Corey Stewart lost in a landslide to Tim Kaine, who defeated him 57-41%, a margin of 16%.

Will Trump lose by double digits in Virginia in 2020? Are Republicans now the definitive minority there? And will Virginia continue to become more Democratic? Discuss below.

[Calthrina950]

Yes. Republicans have won literally one statewide (Gov/Sen/Pres) race in VA since 2004, including losing a gov race by 9 last year and a Senate race by 14 this year.

I'd say Likely D, with 2020 being the GOP's last shot to win on a presidential level.  Afterward, it'll be safe.

The chance of any Republican, Trump or no, winning Virginia in 2020 is zero. Too many bridges burned for that to happen.

It was actually a 16% margin, as I indicated in my first post. But otherwise, this parallels my sentiments on the state. Trump has no path to victory in Virginia in 2020, and he will almost certainly do worse there than he did in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Who wins combined virginia in 2020?
both VA and WV. its an Obama Romney Trump state.

Maybe the Democrat? Kaine did better in Northern Virginia than any Democrat had before, and I think those numbers would be enough to cancel out Trump's strength in rural West Virginia. Fortunately, however, such a hypothetical would never happen.

[Calthrina950]

Do people now think that Northam generally underperformed last year? Trump JA was a bit worse than it was today back then and it seems like he could've carried places like Chesterfield by a couple more points.

I don't think so. As I said above, polls were much closer for months prior to the election, and Gillepsie having a history of being a "moderate Republican" might have enabled him to stay within single digits.

[Calthrina950]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

[Calthrina950]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

[Calthrina950]

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

But the generic ballot was D+7. Im definetely not gonna believe NEvada polls anymore but I don't think Nevada is at Virginia or Colorado levels of Safeness yet although its close.

No, it is not. Nevada and Colorado are both Lean to Likely Democratic, in my opinion. But I think that by about 2024 or so, both will be falling into the Safe Democratic category, if current trends continue.