Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Calthrina950]

James only took 8% of the black vote in MI.

But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican in Michigan to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000.

Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright spots for Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

James only took 8% of the black vote in MI.

But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000.

Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans.

Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed.

I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term.

The Democrats came within 5 points or less of winning *five* more House seats in Texas, which would have taken them to a *majority* of the Texas House delegation. They didn't manage it, but I wouldn't want to be the one to tell John Carter, Kevin Marchand, Michael McCaul, Will Hurd or Chip Roy -- or, for that matter, Pete Olson, Dan Crenshaw, Roger Williams or Ron Wright, who all won by less than 10 points -- to relax, this will all blow over, they're safe long-term.

This wasn't just about Cruz.

I definitely agree. While I firmly believed that Cruz would win (and he indeed), this election has shown that in the long term, demographic trends are gradually pushing Texas towards the Democratic Party. Cruz only winning by 4 points is a warning sign, one that both Democrats and Republicans should keep in mind.

[Calthrina950]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election.

God, the left sucks in the country.

They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown.

It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". 

[Calthrina950]

The GOP bloodbath in Colorado was beautiful. Besides Coffman losing and the Polis winning Governor, the Republican incumbents State Treasurer and Sec of State lost and R held Attorney General went Dem.

GOP bench wiped out tonight.

I predicted going into Election Day that Democrats would sweep all of the statewide offices. My prediction was correct. I voted for Polis, Young, and Weiser, as I have made clear, so I did, in a way, help to make it happen. However, I also voted for Williams, who has, unfortunately and predictably, lost. Tipton did survive by ~9 points. Lamborn, however, was held under the 60% mark for the first time since 2006, and Rose-Spaulding did manage to do 4% better than Misty Plowright did in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

[Calthrina950]

Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off.

You are right. While I think John Cornyn is favored in 2020, especially with it being a presidential year, I also believe that he will face a much more competitive race than he did in 2014. He definitely won't be getting over 60% of the vote this time. And the suburban trend in Texas, as well as the trends concerning minority and young voters, should send alarm signals to the Republicans there. But in a way, I am disappointed by the results of this midterm, given that it has only confirmed the intensification of polarization.

[Calthrina950]

Collin Peterson is gone in 2020, assuming he even runs again.

Have you seen my thread concerning the intensification of the rural-suburban divide? It astounds me the extent to which Klobuchar collapsed in royal Minnesota as compared to 2012. And Peterson narrowly winning yet again, as well as MN-11 (apparently) and MN-8 flipping to the Republicans, show that the trend is only going to get worse.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County.

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from.

A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties.

If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide.

You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County.

Maricopa County is currently really tight, Sinema up 452,208 to 449,990. That's with about 83% in.

About 14% left to come in from Apache County as well, so far that county has split about 60/40 to Sinema.

There is still hope for Sinema yet. But we will see.

[Calthrina950]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far.

[Calthrina950]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I know. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

[Calthrina950]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point.

You are right. And Bush only won Florida by 537 votes in the end. Scott is leading by much more than that. And DeSantis is up by ~60,000 votes over Gillum.

[Calthrina950]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

You are right about Gardner. Looking at Jared Polis's county win map, it is clear to me that Gardner's chances in 2020 are very low at this point. Stapleton managed to narrowly win Conejos and Las Animas Counties, which Trump carried in 2016. He got the typical margins for Republicans in rural Colorado, and in Douglas County (which he won by 16), El Paso County (which he won by 19), Weld County (which he won by 23), and in Mesa County (which he won by 26). Polis, however, won Adams County by 11, Jefferson County by 12, Arapahoe County by 16, and Broomfield by 20 percentage points. He carried Larimer County (Fort Collins) by 12 points, and got 76% in both Denver and Boulder Counties.

Polis also managed to flip Chaffee and Garfield Counties, counties Trump won in 2016, canceling out Stapleton's minor pickups in far Southern Colorado. Moreover, he managed to hold Pueblo and Huerfano Counties, which Stapleton thought he could win. He also got over 70% in Pitkin and San Miguel Counties, home to Aspen and Telluride respectively. It is clear at this point that the Denver suburbs are firmly in the Likely Democratic category, and that winning by double digits in Weld, Mesa, Douglas, and El Paso Counties is nowhere near enough for Republicans. Their gains in Southern Colorado are insignificant, and won't help them either. If Gardner loses by as much as Stapleton did in Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Jefferson, and Larimer in 2020, then he is done for.

[Calthrina950]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote!

[Calthrina950]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote!

He isn't exactly a long term Utah resident.

That is true. Romney's carpetbagging may very well have been a factor, and the fact that he failed to win the Republican state convention vote outright earlier this year may have been an indicator of his general election underperformance. But still, I'm surprised that Wilson managed to win not just one but two counties, and that she only lost Salt Lake County to Romney by 3 points. She did better than both Snow and Clinton.

[Calthrina950]

Another good thing is that we have a decent-sized majority without those annoying Blue Dogs. Ordinary progressives were able to win, or be competitive, in many districts across the country.

What do you make of the results in Colorado?

[Calthrina950]

Is it possible that Sinema could hit 50% with the remaining votes, like Tester did?

[Calthrina950]

Will Sinema hit 50% with the remaining votes? I've asked this question already.

[Calthrina950]

Will Sinema hit 50% with the remaining votes? I've asked this question already.

Sorry, didn't see. It looks like a resounding yes. The final result will probably be around 50.5 to 51% Sinema.

I am glad to hear that. It will make the map more aesthetically pleasing, leaving Manchin as the only Democrat to win while failing to obtain a absolute majority. Scott, if he pulls it out, will be the only Republican to do so.

[Calthrina950]

I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority.

[Calthrina950]

I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority.

You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes

I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate.

[Calthrina950]

I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority.

You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes

I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate.

I wouldn't consider that "close".

The race would have to be within 0.5%

Close in the sense that it was under 3%. I'm not detracting from Sinema's win, though. McSally was probably the best Republican candidate that could be nominated in Arizona this year. Ward and Arpaio would have lost by much more. Arpaio, in fact, I think would have lost by at least 15%, the margin that he lost by to Penzone two years ago.