MI-Mitchell Research/MIRS: James opens big lead in GOP primary

[Calthrina950]

James is going to win the primary big and will hopefully give Senator Spend-It-Now a run for her money in November.

Do you think the race will be decided by single digits this year? Or will Stabenow win by 17-18 pts. again, as she has in her last two elections?

[Calthrina950]

James is going to win the primary big and will hopefully give Senator Spend-It-Now a run for her money in November.

Do you think the race will be decided by single digits this year? Or will Stabenow win by 17-18 pts. again, as she has in her last two elections?

My thoughts are that Stabenow wins by 25 points.

Why do you think she would win by such a wide margin? It's not impossible, given how Carl Levin got 62% of the vote in 2008, but Michigan has gotten more Republican since then, as Trump's victory demonstrated. My personal belief is that she will win by a margin similar to, or somewhat below, that of 2012.

[Calthrina950]

But but... Bagel and IceSpear told me racist Republicans wouldn't vote for James!

I wouldn't completely disregard what they said. There are some in the Republican base who are genuinely racist, and would be less likely to support a minority candidate. But given that we have people such as Tim Scott and Mia Love in Congress, that description doesn't seem to fit the majority.

[Calthrina950]

James is going to win the primary big and will hopefully give Senator Spend-It-Now a run for her money in November.

Do you think the race will be decided by single digits this year? Or will Stabenow win by 17-18 pts. again, as she has in her last two elections?

My thoughts are that Stabenow wins by 25 points.

Why do you think she would win by such a wide margin? It's not impossible, given how Carl Levin got 62% of the vote in 2008, but Michigan has gotten more Republican since then, as Trump's victory demonstrated. My personal belief is that she will win by a margin similar to, or somewhat below, that of 2012.

Stabenow being a strong incumbent + the Democratic wave

As I said, it's plausible. I think she will win by double digits, but whether or not she gets to 60% will depend on how the national environment, and the environment in Michigan, is by that time.

[Calthrina950]

James is going to win the primary big and will hopefully give Senator Spend-It-Now a run for her money in November.

Do you think the race will be decided by single digits this year? Or will Stabenow win by 17-18 pts. again, as she has in her last two elections?

My thoughts are that Stabenow wins by 25 points.

No one asked

I was asking a few questions about the race, and I don't think it's a problem that Solid answered, even though the questions were directed to Wulfric. But as I've said elsewhere, Stabenow will probably win by double digits, but she will not reach 60%. If she couldn't in 2012 or 2006, then why would she now? Especially since Michigan has gotten more Republican since those years.

[Calthrina950]

James is going to win the primary big and will hopefully give Senator Spend-It-Now a run for her money in November.

Do you think the race will be decided by single digits this year? Or will Stabenow win by 17-18 pts. again, as she has in her last two elections?

My thoughts are that Stabenow wins by 25 points.

Your “thinking” is ignorant of reality.

I'm not sure if I would go as far to say that about him. Though I do think that he is wrong, and that Stabenow will win by quite a bit less then that. However, Michigan is still Likely Democratic under my ratings.

[Calthrina950]

The Trump cult effect in this race is just stunning. These Trumpanzees who voted for James are the same people who hated Obama for the color of his skin, and they voted for a man whose race they hate simply because of the Trump endorsement.

This post is so bad that it hurts.

I agree with you here, though my position is complicated. As a black person myself, I am well aware of the racist sentiments that have been expressed by many in the Republican base, particularly those against former President Obama. However, at the same time, it's wrong to apply the racist tag to "all Republicans", just as it is equally wrong to apply the "anti-American" or "communist" tag to all Democrats. The Democratic base certainly has its share of racists as well, and there are good and decent people on both sides of the ideological spectrum. Yes, race was, and continues to be, a major factor in many parts of the country, but applying blanket terms such as Wolverine22 has done here helps no one and only furthers the divide.