2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

That seems to be plausible. And what do you think the impact of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills are going to be on next year's midterms? My belief is that they will have little to no impact whatsoever, and won't be of benefit to the Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

That seems to be plausible. And what do you think the impact of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills are going to be on next year's midterms? My belief is that they will have little to no impact whatsoever, and won't be of benefit to the Democrats.

My initial thinking was the actual infrastructure bill might help Biden a bit, but so far there's no evidence that's true. The BBB bill on the other hand (if it even passes) I think will only motivate Republicans more and end up hurting Dems. Much like how Dems hammered healthcare in '18 in opposition to repeal (which was unsuccessful anyway) I expect Reps to hammer inflation and opposition to this bill as the key themes.

Some people seem to think that this bill is way more popular than 'Obamacare' so therefore Dems will not have the same kind of "shellacking" and backlash they had in 2010. The thing is I would argue both that polling/media is more screwed up now than it was back then and Republicans still haven't gone hard against it yet with their propaganda.

If you poll this bill and frame it the same way the DNC wants you to frame it, you'll come back with about 60% of the country wanting it. There's no doubt many individual provisions are popular, and most people would love the provisions in theory, but the question which pollsters don't ask is is it worth taxes being raised, the debt/deficit being increased, and possible inflation increases? The thing with the left and why their policy framings seem so popular is because they're good at offering attractive things that people want but that comes with many different consequences that people also have to think about. So most polling on this legislation is not going to be a reliable way of getting to people's real views. It's just too complicated.

What's shocking and quite frankly frightening from a Democratic perspective is on the question of whether it'd help them personally or help the economy, most people think it would not change the status quo or hurt them/the economy. So that would indicate most people are not sold on the effectiveness of it, even if they like it in theory. Most Americans also don't know what's in the bill because it keeps changing. So until it would actually become law, don't expect coherent and strong opinions on it based on a generalized poll question.

I have a few more questions to ask. Your points about the infrastructure bill certainly seem to be playing themselves out. But what about the pandemic? How much longer do you envision us being trapped in this situation? Cases are rising again, restrictions remain in place, and we still don't have a sense of normalcy. Are voters going to punish the Administration for this? Or is the pandemic going to be submerged by other issues?