Official New Hampshire prediction thread

[NHPolitico]

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

[NHPolitico]

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

Well... you live there so I'd say that you probably have a better idea of what's going on than anyone else here...
Looks about right.

Here's the early word (I still feel good about my projection)...

Kerry 36
Dean 31
Edwards 12
Clark 12

A clean third place finish hands SC to Edwards on a platter.  I think it will happen.

[NHPolitico]

I've been checking the polls (www.dcpoliticalreport.com) and they seem to indicate:

Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Clark
Lieberman

Not my predictions (I'm a coward on these sort of things) but that seems to be the most likely result.

In the past few days, Kerry, Dean and Edwards have all been moving up, while Clark and Lieberman have been moving down.

Basic poll reading I know, but it's worth summerising it anyhow.

Here's more early word...

Dean 34
Kerry 33
Clark 12
Edwards 12

--AND--

Kerry 37
Dean 31
Clark 12
Edwards 12

Comeback Kid?

[NHPolitico]

I've been checking the polls (www.dcpoliticalreport.com) and they seem to indicate:

Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Clark
Lieberman

Not my predictions (I'm a coward on these sort of things) but that seems to be the most likely result.

In the past few days, Kerry, Dean and Edwards have all been moving up, while Clark and Lieberman have been moving down.

Basic poll reading I know, but it's worth summerising it anyhow.

Here's more early word...

Dean 34
Kerry 33
Clark 12
Edwards 12

--AND--

Kerry 37
Dean 31
Clark 12
Edwards 12

Comeback Kid?

When will we get some actual result/exit polls from New Hampshire? I heard something about higher-than-expected turnout, which should benefit candidates like Edwards and hurt Dean.

Dean thinks it helps him. He thinks it's his GOTV effort.  We'll have to see tonight how it breaks out.  We'll know who won by 8:20 pm EST.

[NHPolitico]

If Dean is able to comeback and win the nomination, he will be more dangerous to Bush simply because Dean's baptism by fire has improved his campaign style.

It's shown him how to use Judy-- have her do interviews on local TV in states he's targeting for delegates like NM.  They'll think no way a woman like her would be married to a crazy person and that's a big win for Dean.  

[NHPolitico]

If Dean is able to comeback and win the nomination, he will be more dangerous to Bush simply because Dean's baptism by fire has improved his campaign style.

I don't think that's true.  All the GOP will have to do is show the clip Dean's 'I have a scream speech', and Bush's re-election is a sure thing.

Naaaaw, that clip has lost all of its punch.  Dean can start with a whole new media strategy tomorrow and really be back in this, even if Kerry wins tonight.

[NHPolitico]

Word is that there are plenty of new voters registering. These could be Dean voters.

[NHPolitico]

New, revised exit poll numbers...

Kerry 37
Edwards 21
Dean 20
Clark 13
Lieberman 6
Kucinich 3