Primary scenario (user search)
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Author Topic: Primary scenario  (Read 11986 times)
NHPolitico
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Posts: 2,303


« on: January 12, 2004, 04:01:14 PM »

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Dean will not lose a contest until after 2/4. Dems will get buyer's remorse and try to give someone else a chance. It will be Clark who will win both TN and VA. Dean bounces back with wins in NV and WA and then wins without a loss until March 2nd. Clark wins Ohio and Deans wins every other contest that day. At this point, Dean has the nomination in the bag and Clark pulls out.
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NHPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,303


« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2004, 04:38:49 PM »


Good find.
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NHPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,303


« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2004, 11:13:44 AM »

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Kerry has begun to attack Clark in NH. He doesn't want to come in third, I guess...

MANCHESTER (AP) -- Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, the national chairwoman of John Kerry's campaign, renewed criticism Monday of Wesley Clark's praise for the Bush administration two years ago.

Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, and Clark are battling for second place behind Howard Dean in the New Hampshire primary in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Shaheen, former state party chairman Joe Keefe and state Senate Democratic leader Sylvia Larsen, pointed out that Clark was a keynote speaker at a Republican fundraiser in 2001, and that he praised President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and other members of the Bush administration.

They played a video of the May 2001 address at an Arkansas GOP fund-raiser.

"I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Paul O'Neill -- people I know very well -- our President George W. Bush. We need them there, because we've got some tough challenges ahead in Europe," Clark said in the speech.

Shaheen said "the issue here is this candidate is not a Democrat," and doesn't support Democratic values.

"I welcome Wesley Clark to our party," she said. "But I just don't think someone who raised money for Republicans, praised George W. Bush after he had begun his systematic reversal of Bill Clinton's policies" should be the Democratic nominee, she said.

Clark, responded Monday: "When you're attacked like this, it's the sincerest form of flattery in politics."

Earlier, in November, Clark explained his comments.

"I worked for Colin Powell. I like him. I worked around Rumsfeld and Cheney when I was a White House fellow. And I never wanted to see America fail, no matter who's in charge. Like most Americans, I wanted that team to succeed," the retired Army general had said.

He said he didn't accuse Bush of failing at the time "because I had hopes they would move forward," Clark said.


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NHPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,303


« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2004, 11:29:06 AM »

Make your own primary scenario.

Gephardt wins Iowa by 5-10 points.Dean 2nd. Kerry beats out edwards by 1-5 points The rest are below 10%.

Dean wins NH by 10-20 points.  Clark grabs 2nd barely. Gephardt inches ahead of kerry by 1-5 points. Lieberman leads the back of the pack with 7% The rest are down.

After Nh kerry drops out.

SC-Gephardt wins, clark barely loses to gephardt. Dean is behind clark and infront of of edwards.

After SC edwards and braun drops out.

The rest of febuary 3rd
Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Gephardt
New Mexico-Gerphardt
North Dakoda-Lieberman
Oklahoma-Gephardt

Clark and Lieberman drop out

Gephardt wins michigan by 10-15 points
securing a lock on the nomination

Dick Bennett's NH poll shows a flow of women voters to Kerry instead of Clark. This may be a Shaheen effect.  It would help Dean fend off Clark.

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 16, 2004
The drop in ballot preference for Howard Dean has stabilized and women voters who have switched from Dean are giving John Kerry a lift at the expense of Wesley Clark.

While 71% of women likely to vote in the Democratic primary have a favorable opinion of Clark and while Dean leads Clark among men by just 1 percentage point (28% to 27%), Clark continues to trail Dean among women 28% to 19%. Women moving away from Dean are more likely to switch to Kerry. A total of 14% of men say they will vote for Kerry and 18% of women say they will vote for Kerry.

Based on Dick Gephardt's 1988 Iowa bounce, Kerry has regained enough pre-Iowa ballot strength to challenge Dean and Clark for the lead in New Hampshire should Kerry win in Iowa.
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NHPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,303


« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2004, 09:32:45 AM »

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%
HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

Watch out he'll tell God.

A messenger from God is not bound by the laws of math!  You'll be struck down where you type if you don't watch it!
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