Testing and tracing are essential, but alone they're not enough. That's the basic idea behind this-if we can't keep the case counts down then our testing and tracing system will soon be overwhelmed. I'm not sure how much capacity we will have anyway, I expect a GM update on this soon.
Anyway, I'm open to arguments for ending it on January 1, 2021 but my preference is March 31. This is because we are more likely to have a vaccine by then, and because on January 1 we might either be in the middle of or about to experience a second wave of the virus. It's pretty unrealistic I think to expect a vaccine this year, it's supposed to be a minimum of 12-18 months before we get one if everything goes right and even that would be pretty unprecedented. If there is a miracle Congress would presumably end it early, I just really fear a scenario where the requirements end prematurely due to congressional inactivity or gridlock. I think the vote on extending the requirements should be scheduled for something more like 2 weeks before the scheduled end as we did with the stimulus, so we are reasonably confident in how things will be by the time of the deadline.
As virus cases nationwide go down (which I'm assuming they are), there's less of a demand for in nation tests. Therefore, it is likely that we'll have more resources to test people at points of entry, especially as testing capacity (I'm assuming because I don't see why it'd drop) continues to increase. Until proven otherwise on both those fronts, I don't see why we can't just test everyone.
It is also my belief that there won't be a second wave in the same sense that there was the 1918 influezena just because this virus doesn't appear to be particularly seasonal. That doesn't mean there won't be intermittent flare ups after reopening (because that is certain) which hopefully we'll be able to containt without shutting too many things down ala a SK (which is why it's so important such testing system doesn't get overwhelmed).
As for the timing of the vaccine, the notion of a 12-18 month timeframe comes from Dr. Fauci IRL back in March and fWIW it probably shouldn't be taken as gospel. I doubt they'll be a vaccine by September but with something like 70 vaccine candidates IRL, I wouldn't be surprised if we had one by early January. Though it's also possible we may never have a vaccine for this and regular tests become the new normal (which is a bit of a doomer situation) as we've never developed a coronavirus vaccine before. But honestly this is something that at least IRL shouldn't be regulated that far in advance just because of how many variables there are.
